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October 22, 2021

Week 6 PFF Curiosities - BYU vs Boise State

-- I'm on vacay so it's a short one today

To blitz or not blitz

For all the criticism of BYU not bringing pressure against Boise, it was actually Boise who lacked aggression on defense. Boise blitzed BYU on 6 of 39 dropbacks (15% of the time) while BYU blitzed Bachmeier 12 out of 32 dropbacks (38% of the time). For whatever reason, BYU wasn't really able to make Boise pay. Jaren went over 300 yards, but it came on 59.5% accuracy and it didn't ever feel to me like BYU was moving with ease. If you take out a few screen pass completions Jaren was down to 56% accuracy. You can chalk the failures up largely to fumbles, yes, but the whole offensive vibe was off.

Is dropping back into coverage the best way to play Jaren Hall? As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, Jaren doesn't get the ball out as quickly as Baylor, which could mean he struggles to read the defense or execute the play (conversely it could simply be reflective of his ability to extend plays).

The difference in timing was stark between the USU and the Boise game. When Baylor had a clean pocket against USU he got the ball out in 2.27 seconds. When Jaren had a clean pocket against Boise he got the ball out in 2.9 seconds. For all passing plays Baylor averaged 2.44 seconds to pass against USU, while Jaren was at 3.34 against Boise.

I still think "average time to throw" is more a curiosity than a judgement factor, which is a confusing way to say I remain embedded in the Jaren Hall camp. I do not want a QB switch, or a QB controversy. But I think there's an opportunity here for Jaren to advantage of some quick-hitting plays -- just like his predecessor over in New York.


Is Jaren hunting big plays? 
While thinking about time to throw I got wondering if Jaren was shooting for too many big plays. Maybe he wants to complete bombs and stretches out each play hoping for something to develop. But the stats don't really back that theory up. The number of passes Jaren attempts that are 20 yards or more downfield is right in line with BYU's historic average. In fact I've got him at a teeny bit lower, around 17% of his throws being long bombs versus 18% for BYU going back to 2014. His average depth of target (11.1 yards) is about the same as Zach's from 2020 (10.9 yards), though a bit higher than Baylor's (9.2). Nothing jumps off the screen for me on this one. 


Weather impacts
On a day defined by rain BYU dropped back to pass 39 times and rushed only 25 times. That does not seem like the right mix for such conditions. But football is a game about catching your opponent off guard. Sometimes you have to zig when the defense expects you to zag. And BYU's most killer plays -- the fumbles -- came when running the ball.11. Lol, I guess there's no other way to fumble a ball. Sometimes you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.


Kaleb Hayes on fire
Setting aside the pass interference penalty, Kaleb Hayes had another great game. He was targeted 3 times, broke up two passes, and allowed one catch to Boise State's best player (Shakir) that went for 6 yards. Over the last two games he's been targeted 12 times and those throws have resulted in 3 catches for 26 yards and 4 pass breakups. Check out the below image which shows the eight BYU players who have been targeted the most this season in coverage. 


Hayes has been targeted 4th most on the team, but has given up the least yards, least catches, and has the most pass breakups. Hayes is either a star in the making or on a whale of a hot streak.


Take Courage Cougars, there are more painful Broncos we can lose to



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