You gotta hand it to Utah State, they sure were committed to doing what didn't work. Utah State attempted 15 deep passes against BYU. They completed only 3. Utah State attempted 30 designed runs against BYU. They gained only 47 yards. I don't know if I remember a team trying so hard to do something that the other team was shutting down so well. Kudos to the Cougars. I was worried about our run defense coming into the game, and they were flat out dominant.
The traditional box score is absolutely brutal, crediting Utah State with 35 rushes for 22 yards. The PFF box score -- which takes away non-designed rushes like sacks or fumble recoveries -- is a little kinder, giving Utah State 30 designed rushes for 47 yards. But taking a closer look reveals that 20 of those yards came on two quarterback scrambles, meaning Utah State had 28 runs go for 27 yards? That seems impossible.
One last crazy running stat. Utah State tried to get the ground game going on the edges, running outside the left TE three times and the right TE seven times. Those 10 attempts netted ... negative 11 yards. Wow.
Deven Thompkins is good; Kaleb Hayes matched him
Tyler Allgeier is flying up the pantheon
The 5' 8" speedster from Utah State is having an amazing senior campaign. Thompkins is second in the country in receiving yards and has almost as many yards this year as he did in his first three combined. Against BYU he was great, going for 9 catches, 125 yards, and a score.
But he was less great when guarded by Kaleb Hayes. Hayes covered Thompkins on four of his targets, allowing one completion for 15 yards and breaking up one pass. Hayes also defended five passes that were thrown in the direction of Justin McGriff. Those five passes resulted in one catch for five yards and one pass break up. Pass coverage stats are hard to value of course -- are incompletions the result of bad throws? broken plays? pressure on the QB? But without going back and watching every play Hayes was involved in, breaking up 2 out of 9 passes and allowing only 2 catches seems really encouraging.
Hayes didn't play in weeks one through three, but has been on the field for 128 snaps over the last two games. According to PFF he leads the team in pass deflections. I suspect his playing time is about to blow up.
I like the balance in BYU's passing game
BYU is throwing about 20% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage this year. That's a big chunk compared to recent history (from 2014 to 2020 PFF has BYU averaging about 11% of their throws in this range). This uptick in short passes could mean a few different things, but one we know for sure is the screen game has returned to BYU in the post-Anae/Detmer era. In 2015 Tanner Mangum used screens on 4.4% of his pass plays. In 2016 Taysom Hill used the screen game on 2.5% of his pass plays. Tanner used it 6% of the time in 2017. But by 2020 Zach was throwing screen passes on 11.5% of his dropbacks. This year the number is on the rise again as Jaren has thrown screen passes on 15% of his passes, while Baylor is at 14%.
The nice thing is the increase in screens and shorter throws is not coming at the expense of pushing the ball down field. BYU since 2014 has thrown about 18% of their passes 20 yards down the field or more. This year Jaren and Baylor are right around that mark, but where they are throwing the ball less is in the 0-to-10 yard range. In other words, BYU is exchanging passes in the 0-to-10 range for more attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's a trade off I like!
I don't have tons of evidence to back it up but those short throws feel safer (less likely to be intercepted?) while generating similar value (last year Zach's passes at or behind the LOS generated 8.4 yards per attempt, while passes in the 0-to-10 range generated 7.5 yards per attempt).
Of course, it's all about balance right? The more BYU relies on the short game, the more defenses will adjust, and maybe a year from now BYU's tendencies will require another shift. Still, for the time being I like where BYU is at. 20% of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, 35% in the 0-to-10 range, 25% in the 10-to-20 range, and 20% in the 20-yards or more range feels like a good distribution to target.
One last note: if we're going to throw short, can we involve Katoa and Allgeier? Last year these two went for 470 yards receiving. This year they've combined for 59.
Puka Watch (and Gunner too)
As of this writing Puka hasn't been credited with a contested catch for this sweet grab at the beginning of the USU game. What you doing PFF?
Speaking of receivers, is Gunner starting to find a groove? After being targeted only five times in the first two games, Gunner has seen 21 targets in the last three. Granted six quarters in those games have been with his brother at the helm (nepotism alert, lol) but Jaren threw at him 7 times in the ASU game and Conover found him twice in the USU game.
Best interception of recent memory?
A non-PFF thought. Is Malik Moore's interception11. We're talking just the interception catch, not the interception return, otherwise Mr. Fred Warner would be making an appearance here. the most impressive of the past 15-plus years? As best I can remember there are three candidates.
Malik Moore vs Utah State
Craig Bills vs Notre Dame
Francis Bernard vs Utah
Both Craig and Malik's picks are awesome, but for me it's Francis Bernard by a decent margin. The combination of the rivalry game, plus the prior play being an all-time bogus penalty, plus Gus Johnson on the call, plus Kalani going nuts on the sideline, all wrapped around the karmic justice of a one-handed interception ... truly this was one of my favorite plays of the 2010s. If we had won that game it might have been my favorite. It reminded me of the low of seeing Kaipo McGuire get killed in the '96 Cotton Bowl followed immediately by the high of seeing KO Kealaluhi roast Kansas State for the go-ahead TD on the very next play.
I choose to remember this Bernard instead of the one who pulled a Walder Frey.
Tyler Allgeier is flying up the pantheon
Finally, I was wrong about Allgeier. I dismissed his 2020 season as a clobbering of cupcakes, but this year he's been sensational. Where does he fall in the running back hierarchy?
Well, he has a top-10 rushing season to his name, a top-10 single game rushing performance, a top-2 yards per carry season, he delivered the best performance against Utah since Harvey Unga, and he gave us one of the most ridiculous hustle plays in BYU history against Arizona State. If he has three more 100-yard rushing games in his career he'll be 3rd all-time in BYU history for that stat. He carried the ball 65 times for 265 yards in the season-opening wins against the three Pac-12ers. At 113 rushing yards per game he's been the key offensive player in bringing us one of the best starts to a season in BYU history.
In April I embarked on a 10,000 word crusade to crown BYU's GOAT running back. In that opus I placed Harvey, Luke, and Jamaal in tier 1;22. (Spoiler alert) in that order. Willis, Brown, Jenkins, Valkenburg, and Heimuli in tier 2; and John Ogden, Jeff Blanc, and Brian McKenzie in tier 3. At the pace Allgeier is going he's on target for tier 2 -- even if he goes pro early. The ceiling rises however, if he starts catching more passes, or stays another year and keeps playing like this ...
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