-- The underlying numbers do not support a vault to superstardom
Who am I?
I'm a BYU receiver who has played in 28 games.
I've never had a game with over 100 yards receiving.
I've only caught more than 5 passes in a game twice in my career.
I average less than 35 yards receiving per game.
Of the 19 players who caught passes last season, I was 16th worst in terms of generating yards after catch.
In 4 career games against P5 opponents my combined stat line is 10 catches, 46 yards, and 1 touchdown.
I didn't have a game with 75 receiving yards until the 24th game of my career.
Who am I? I'm Neil Pau'u, the player my position coach claims is the best route runner he's seen in 10 years of coaching. I'm the guy our defensive back grad assistant calls the hardest cover on the team. I'm the guy BYU pundits are calling a NFL receiver, even though the history of BYU putting receivers in the league is pretty ho hum. (funny Dax would make the Redskins roster 20 minutes after I wrote this. Way to go Dax!)
My question -- where in the world is all this hype coming from?
Let me be clear -- I'm not trying to bash on Neil Pau'u. The Pau'u family is awesome. Butch's 19 tackles against UCLA back in 2016 was remarkable. Neil dusted Ute safety Marquise Blair for a superb touchdown in the 2018 rivalry matchup. He was second on the team last year in creating first downs through the air. And think of this: if Neil catches another 600 yards or so this season it'd be enough to put him in the top-30 all time in BYU receiving yards. I would amputate my foot if you told me I could go back in time and put my name in the BYU history books or catch a touchdown pass against my most hated enemy.
So no I'm not here to tear a guy down, but I am confused. I've watched Neil play for three years and if this season, with a new quarterback, with a new offensive coordinator, he puts up some monstrous 1,000 yard campaign, and relegates Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua to second fiddle status in the process, all while generating NFL hype, it would be the most surprising breakout I can ever remember.
The main thing that leaves me doubting Neil is he doesn't have the speed or agility to get away from defenders. I'm basing this on some stats I'm about to share, though I think the eye test confirms much of the same. Check out the below numbers and think about how they relate to dynamic athleticism (all stats from PFF).
Rushing -- Neil's been given nine handoffs in his career. On those plays he's gained 12 yards, good for 1.3 yards per carry. Contrast that with Dax Milne (24 attempts, 106 yards, 4.4 average), Gunner (10, 39, 3.9), Chris Jackson (9, 43, 4.8), or even Kody Epps (2, 18, 9). Go back a couple years and Hifo of course dominated as a runner (55, 237, 4.3) but Micah Simon moved the ball as well (11, 70, 6.4). Neil has simply been the least successful BYU receiver to be involved in the run game.
Missed tackles forced -- Last season Neil had 49 touches (catches and carries) and forced 3 missed tackles, which was the second lowest rate of anyone on the team with at least 10 touches (better only than Baylor Romney). To put it another way, Neil forced a missed tackle once every 16 touches. He was a bit better in 2018, true, but a bit worse in 2017. We are talking about somewhat small sample sizes -- Neil's been around for a long time but only has about 80 career touches to his name -- but I think it's fair to say he's neither a wiggler or a bulldozer.
Targets in open space -- In 2018 and 2020 BYU threw 106 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. These types of passes fall into a few categories (screens, dump offs, etc) but typically they are intended to be easy, short passes to players who can make something happen in space. Of those 106 pass attempts, one went in the direction of Neil Pau'u. Just one. Again for comparison, Dax was targeted 15 times in this area of the field last season. Even the lumbering Mitch Mathews was targeted 7 times in this zone during his upperclassmen years. BYU's coaches have put their money where there mouth is -- they do not believe Neil is a weapon in space, and they do not use him as such.
Now, to switch gears for a moment, if you're looking for reasons to support a Pau'u breakout there are a few. Last year Neil ended the season on a bang, going over 75 yards in 4 of his final 5 games. The three highest receiving yard outputs of his career came in the last three games of 2020. Did something click for him? Did the game slow down?
Also, in 2020 the coaches completely changed how they deployed Neil and 2020 turned into the best year of Neil's career. Coincidence? In 2017 and 2018 Neil lined up in a wide alignment on 67% of his passing downs. Last year he lined up wide only 27% of the time; instead he moved into the slot for the vast majority of his reps. That's not a small tweak, it's a complete role reversal. And it worked!11. Having the #2 pick in the draft throwing the ball may have had something to do with it too.If you believe in Neil as a superstar you believe playing from the slot unlocked his potential.
The final reason to be pumped would be that Dax Milne and his 91 targets are gone and somebody is going to get those passes. It seems reasonable to assume Pau'u is at the top of the pecking order but there are lots of mouths to feed: Holkamania is back, the Nacua brothers are on board, Gunner Romney is still alive right(?), everybody wants more Wake and oh by the way BYU is breaking in a new QB and might choose to run the ball more. Those 91 open targets may not translate to as many extra helpings as it first seems.
So at long last here's my prediction. I don't have Neil breaking out this season. In fact I'm going on record that he'll have slightly worse numbers than he did in 2020. Given the loss of Zach Wilson, the loss of Grimes,22. Something nobody seems to think will matter because "Arod called the plays anyway" ... the increased scheduling difficulty, the possibility of receiving more defensive attention with Milne gone, I'm thinking 42 catches, 580 yards, and 4 touchdowns for Neil.
Which to reiterate, would be awesome. Numbers like that would be great from your third best pass catcher. Numbers like that are something I could only achieve in daydreams. But it's not what I'd hope for the "hardest cover on the team" or one of the "best route runners" of the last decade.
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