BYU said goodbye to a quarterback who was picked second in the NFL draft and he may not have been the biggest lost the team had this offseason. I love Jeff Grimes. He saved Kalani's career, restored our offensive line, developed a running game that maximized the potential of our lesser athletes, and redirected a BYU program that was staring into a sinkhole. To lose Grimes to Baylor -- a school that hasn't exactly exuded the Christian principles it espouses; a school that doesn't feel to this biased fan like that much of an upgrade over BYU -- is devastating.
Remember what life was like before Grimes? We once played UMass at home. In 58 minutes and 32 seconds of game-time we scored 3 points against the fighting minutemen. We'd go on to lose 17 to 10. Florida International would score 63 on UMass just a couple of weeks later.
BYU rushed for 42 yards that day. Four games later with Grimes at the helm, against Wisconsin, on the road, BYU rushed for 191 yards. The impact of a great coach is so obvious.
Back in 2018 Utah State rode the pairing of 2nd year offensive coordinator David Yost and future first round draft pick Jordan Love to the tune of 47.5 points per game, the second best mark in the entire country. By 2019 Yost had moved on to greener pastures by leaving the actual USU pastures, but Love remained; a year older and in theory a year more experienced. I talked with fan after fan up in Logan, and not one indicated even the slightest worry about losing Yost. They should have been. The next year their offense scored 19 less points per game, and dropped to 64th nationally. Whoops.
BYU fans have been similarly optimistic this offseason about their change in coaching staff. Most fans I talk to don't mind that Grimes is gone because Arod was calling the plays in 2020 anyways. But isn't there more to being a coordinator than just calling plays? Grimes' expertise in offensive line positioning created advantages in the running game that paved the way for the win at Wisconsin. He developed Brady Christensen into a superstar. He changed the culture as soon as he joined the team. I talked indirectly with two members of the team that first year -- one offense, one defense -- and it wasn't close. The favorite coach on the entire staff was Grimes.
And it may sound counterintuitive, but doesn't the fact that Arod was calling the plays last year make Grimes' absence worse? Think of it this way. If I'm going to lose Grimes and his talent at instilling discipline and constructing a powerhouse offensive line, at the very least I want to replace him with someone who is a better playcaller, or someone who brings something special to the table in recruiting or scheme. But if the same person who called the plays in 2020 is calling the plays in 2021, then what have we gained? We're the same outfit, just without the best offensive line whisperer in the country.
This isn't to say I dislike like Roderick at coordinator. On the contrary, I think Arod is an awesome recruiter, and a very thoughtful football junkie. It's fun having coaches who care about football after enduring the "football is fifth" mantra of the Bronco days. And if Arod was calling the plays in 2020 he obviously did a great job!
I just wish we could've kept Grimes longer. In the same way that losing Dax Milne increased the burden on Gunner Romney and Neil Pau'u, so too does the burden on Arod and Fesi now grow heavier. I will root for them to succeed at every turn. Which brings me to the real purpose of this long blog. How might the offense under Arod differ than the one we've seen under Grimes? To answer this question I've compared a number of indicators from Arod's time as co-offensive coordinator at Utah in 2015 and 2016 to Grimes' time as coordinator at BYU from 2018 to 2020.
Comparing in this way isn't foolproof. For one, college football is a changing sport -- what Arod thought would work in 2015 may not be what he thinks will work in 2021. Also, comparing Arod in '15 and '16 to Grimes in '18 through '20 could be a bit silly because how much of what Grimes ran was influenced by Arod? Nevertheless, I push forward with the comparison because 1) the season is almost here and I'm hungry for anything football, 2) I love PFF and the granular stats they provide, and 3) I'm curious if we'll see any big changes this year, and if they align with things we've seen earlier in Arod's career.
Let's get to it. All numbers compared here come from PFF, and represent the averages of the team for the two-year Arod period or three-year Grimes era. Also note I'm listing these metrics from a curiosity perspective, not a "this guy is doing it right, this guy is doing it wrong" perspective. In other words, I don't know if using more jet sweeps is better than not. I don't know if attempting more deep balls is better than the alternative. I just wanted to see how differently these two coaches used the tools at their disposal. So ...
Who passed the ball more? Grimes
Grimes' offense dropped back to pass on 54% of their offensive plays. Arod's offense dropped back with intent to throw 47% of the time.
Who relied on play-action more? Arod
Arod had his team pass out of play-action on 37% of their dropbacks; Grimes 32%. Arod's teams also gained significantly more of their passing yards through play-action than Grimes (44% for Arod to 35% for Grimes).
Who used the screen game more? Arod
This one surprised me. Arod called for screens on 14% of his dropbacks; Grimes 11%. I don't watch Utah so I'm not sure if these are more of the wide receiver screen variety, or the traditional running back style. Either way I think the 14% usage rate by Arod is a good sign that the screen game can continue into the upcoming era at BYU.
Who threw it deep more frequently? Tie
Both teams on average attempted deep shots at a rate of 16%. (Deep passes are balls thrown further than 20 yards downfield)
Who threw it short more often? Arod
Arod's teams attempted almost a quarter of their passes (23%) at or behind the line of scrimmage. Grimes only 14%. I'm on record as being a fan of these short throws; they can get your QB in rhythm and put the ball in playmaking hands. But it can also be a sign of a checkdown artist. 23% is probably too frequent a clip for me. I'll be monitoring this rate throughout the year.
Who used tight ends more? Grimes by a smidge
Per PFF, tight ends on Grimes-led teams played an average of 95 snaps per game compared to Arod-led teams which averaged 90 snaps a game.
Who disguised their tight end intention better? Grimes
Much of the value of a true tight end comes in the fact that on a given play they can block or run. If a tight end is skilled at both, he can be on the field and not reveal to the defense what is coming. In a perfect world then, I suppose your tight end would spend exactly half of his snaps blocking and half receiving. Arod's tight ends blocked on 57% of their snaps; Grimes' tight ends blocked on 47%. It's close, but when Utah had tight ends on the field they were more likely to block than go out for a pass. BYU was slightly less predictable.
Who used the horizontal run game? Grimes
This isn't a surprise to anyone. BYU snuck the jet sweep into the 2018 opener against Arizona with great success and it's been a part of the Grimes repertoire ever since. The reliance on it has decreased each year Grimes has been at BYU, but on average it made up 10% of BYU's rushes. For Utah and Arod, plays such as the sweep or the reverse only made up 2% of their rushes. I'd like to see these type of runs continue to make up 8 to 10% of the BYU rushing attack.
Who relied on the quarterback sneak? Grimes
PFF claims BYU ran 16 quarterback sneaks during the Grimes era. They claim Utah ran zero during the Arod era (any Ute fans want to go back and watch some games to confirm if that's true? Oh shoot that was insensitive - I forgot Ute fans don't know how to count). But whether Arod did or didn't use them back in '15 and '16, I hope he retains this play for BYU going forward.
Who will end up being the better coordinator for BYU?
Ah the hard one. PFF can't answer this one for us. Gun to my head I'd guess Grimes will end up being remembered as the better coordinator, simply because he has a skill that is elite nationally. I can live with his other weaknesses because he instantly elevates the offensive line wherever he goes in the same way that Andy Reid can make a quarterback out of anyone or Bill Belichick can develop a new gameplan every week. Maybe we'll find Roderick has an elite skill too (please be recruiting). Alas I know it won't be offensive line whisperer.
No comments:
Post a Comment