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April 7, 2021

The Quest for BYU's Running Back GOAT - The Preamble

-- The intro to a major deep dive into BYU Running Back legacies

Let’s start with the obvious disclaimer: comparing great players is hard. Especially in a sport like football where sample sizes are limited, where fewer games means strength of schedule can play an outsized role in how good a guy looks, and where surrounding talent and coaches can drastically impact a player’s performance (see Tanner Mangum in 2015 vs Mangum in 2017). Oh and there’s also this pertinent fact: I’m not a football expert, so that complicates things. 

Nevertheless, I have a blog, and if blogs weren’t made for evaluating the legacies of our favorite players then why do they even exist? So here we are. Relying on a number of factors mined from traditional stats, made up stats, YouTube studies, old games on BYUtv, media guide write-ups, and research from that most blessed of all sites Cougarboard, I’ve sought to answer the question of who is the greatest running back in BYU history.

In the spirit of full disclosure I admit to taking this project more seriously than any human should, but football players break their brains for our entertainment so shouldn't we deliver similar effort in judging their accomplishments? And do we not have a duty to protect the legacy of Luke Staley from slanderers like Brady Poppinga? I say yes. Let’s get to it.

Over the years of participating in BYU discourse it seems the consensus is there are three in the running for the GOAT BYU running back: Luke Staley, Harvey Unga, and Jamaal Williams. Going into this project I agreed with this sentiment, but in order to cover all our bases -- and especially to avoid the possibility of clouded judgement arising from recency bias -- I wanted to begin this quest by looking at all BYU runners who place in the top-10 for career rushing yards or had a top-10 rushing season.11. I'm not counting QBs here because I already aged 3 years working on this project and the QB wrinkle could  cause my brain to explode. Also I didn't include Tyler Allgeier who just recently joined the top-10 season club.   

Such criteria provides us with the following list: Staley, Unga, and Jamaal, plus Curtis Brown, Jamal Willis, Lakei Heimuli, Jeff Blanc, Pete Van Valkenburg,2                                                                      2. Owner of the GOAT name award, clearly. John Ogden,3


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3. Last place on the coolest name awards, if you were wondering. and Ronney Jenkins. Do any of these additional guys deserve to be in the GOAT conversation? 

Ten fellows makes for a long list to consider, although I think it's safe to say say no matter how good Jeff Blanc was in 1975 he’s not a realistic candidate for GOATdom. But instead of relying on assumptions I figured why not let stats do some work for us? I stacked each of these players against the following measures:

rushing yards in a single season,

rushing yards in a single game,

rushing yards in a career,

rushing yards per game,

yards per carry in a single season,

yards per carry over a career,

receiving yards per game,

total receiving yards in a career,

total TDs in a season,

total TDs in a career,

yards per touch in a season, 

yards per touch in a career,   

amount of 100-yard rushing games in a season,

and amount of 100-yard rushing games in a career.44. I know these stats aren’t perfect but I think they're about the best we can do. I feel they balance single season dominance and longevity nicely, while also accounting for receiving chops and volume (yards per touch). In an ideal world we’d be able to know 100% who benefited the most from their competition; we'd be able to measure broken tackles, yards after contact, or adjusted line yards to give us a better indication of how good these runners really were. Alas, PFF only has that stuff from 2014 on.

The idea here was to create a points system based on performance in these stat categories. I gave each runner anywhere between one and ten points based on where they ranked relative to their peers in a given stat. For example Jamaal Williams has the most rushing yards in a career so he received one point for that category. Ronny Jenkins is last of this group in career rushing yards so he received 10 points in that category.  

I experimented with a ton of formulas using these point values to come up with a composite score for each individual (with lower numbers being better of course). I took a simple straight average of all the categories, a variety of weighted averages, messed around by deleting and adding certain categories, removed the touchdowns, de-emphasized the receiving stats, and after performing all these un-scientific approaches the results consistently broke our group of ten into three groups. 

Scoring the best by noticeable margins ...

Tier I: Unga, Staley, Williams


In the next class was the biggest cluster of players ...

Tier II: Brown, Willis, Jenkins, Valkenburg, Heimuli


And finally our last group ...

Tier III: Blanc, Ogden, 


Thank you, numbers, for confirming what we believed! But to complete our due diligence we need to shine a brighter light on these tier II citizens to determine if they have a case that transcends the algorithms and supports their promotion to tier I. Let's run through each tier II player independently.  

Pete Van Valkenburg

The case for: ancient BYU fans defend Pete with vigor, explaining that leading the nation in rushing despite having an offensive coordinator who only called two running plays is a greater accomplishment than Luke's Doak Walker award ... as just mentioned, led nation in rushing in 1972 ... better career YPC average than legend Harvey Unga (5.2 to 5.0) ... averaged 138 rushing yards per game in 1972 (I believe this is 2nd all-time behind Luke's 145 average in '01) ... second best rushing season by yards ever at BYU ... had an awesome kick return average, including a kick return for TD ... drafted with the 66th, earlier than any other Cougar runner.

The case against: only ninth in career rushing yards ... underwhelming as a sophomore and junior before the explosive senior year ... no receiving presence (forgivable considering the era he played in) ... possibly hollow yardage in '72; gained lots of yards, but was mediocre in blowout losses to Utah State and Arizona State, and missed the Oregon State game.

Other noteworthy: Fleet Pete has two of the most opposite stat lines against Utah you'll ever see. 

1971: 1 carry, 2 yards

1972: 37 carries, 158 yards

Can an oldtimer tell me what happened during the 1972 offseason that transformed Pete Walkenburg into Pete Valkenburg?


Curtis Brown

The case for: delivered elite volume stats; to wit, is second in scrimmage yards in BYU history and is tied for fourth in total TDs ... has a case as the most effective receiving back in Y history ... owns the 5th and 6th best single season scrimmage yard performances in Y history ... one of only 6 BYU players to gain over 1,500 yards in a season; the only player to have done it twice ... strong durability: played 11, 12, 12, and 13 games (played 4 in another that ended in medical redshirt) ... owns one of the greatest runs in BYU history ... had a 237 yard game against Utah in '05 and a 266 yard game against Utah State in '02 that drove an all-time comeback. 

The case against: doesn't have a rushing season that ranks in the BYU top-10 ... had 15 games averaging less than 3 yards per carry (Harvey Unga by comparison had 2) ... struggled mightily running the ball in the two losses that kept the 2006 team from being an absolute all-time squad. 

Other noteworthy: We will never see a BYU player put up as consistent numbers as Brown did as a junior and a senior. He touched the ball the same amount both years (263 times) and had one single yard of difference in total production (1,577 as a junior, 1,576 as a senior). That is so weird. Of second note, I believe the first internet publication (née blog) I ever wrote was about BYU not giving Curtis Brown the ball enough.


Lakei Heimuli

The case for: one of only 5 players to go over 3,800 scrimmage yards in a BYU career ... 5th in career rushing yards among RBs, 6th if you count QBs (hello Taysom) ... gained 553 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 games against the Utes, earning the title of original Ute Slapper.

The case against: only went over 1,000 yards rushing once in his career ... his 4.5 yards per carry is a little low compared to the legends ... Lakei is basically the poor man's Curtis Brown; an awesome dual threat who was as reliable a gainer as they come.

Other noteworthy: Lakei finished 9th nationally in receptions in 1985, while also placing 6th nationally in rushing touchdowns that same year. How often has a running back been top ten in the country in those two categories? Who does that?


Jamal Willis

The case for: if Lakei is the poor man's Curtis Brown, is Jamal Willis Curtis Brown's clone? These two are as close statistically as can be. One averaged a career 5 yards per carry, the other 5.05. One averaged 90 scrimmage yards per game, one averaged 88. Even their senior seasons are similar: Brown gained 1,577 yards and 14 TDs in 2005, while Willis gained 1,567 yards and 14 TDs in 1994. 

The case against: like his brother Curtis Brown, Jamal doesn't have a top-10 rushing season. Also occasionally struggled to gain footing in big games (averaged 2.9 YPC in '94 loss to Utah; 3.4 in '94 loss to ASU; 3.2 in '93 loss to Ohio State; 2.6 in '93 loss to ND; 1.2 in '92 loss to ND)

Other noteworthy: Shoutout to Jamal Willis for this touchdown celebration, one of the coolest in BYU history. The others in contention, if you're curious, are Austin Collie's between the legs spike and Rob Morris' moonwalk


Ronney Jenkins

The case for: is a fan favorite in terms of perceived speed and athletic dominance, a claim that is backed up by his stellar play as a kick returner in the NFL ... owns the third best scrimmage season in BYU history (1,656 yards) behind only Luke in '01 and Harvey in '07 ... is tied for the fourth most TDs in a single season (15) ... owns the fourth best rushing season among RBs, 5th if we include Taysom ... tied for 2nd highest career yards per carry average among RBs with at least 300 carries ... gained 302 yards and 4 TDs in two games against the Utes. 

The case against: if only we had him for more time! Honor code violations meant we only got Ronney for two seasons but what he did with those were something. He averaged 1,289 yards and 14.5 touchdowns over the two years he played at BYU. And those were his underclassmen years! He went for 1,767 yards at Norther Arizona University, his post-BYU stop before the NFL. 

Other noteworthy: I owned a Northern Arizona University shirt from 2009 to 2012. I found it at the DI and bought it cause I liked the lumberjack mascot. Sadly it wasn't until after the shirt died that I learned that's where Ronney finished his college career. 


Conclusion

If you only have one good season I don't think you can be in the GOAT conversation. That eliminates Pete Van Valkenburg. You might wonder how that's fair given Luke Staley only had one good season. Well, he didn't only have one good season. He had the greatest season of all-time and having the greatest season of all-time covers a multitude of sins. Also, his freshman year was better than we remember (771 yards in 8 games, 2nd most yards on the team, 13 touchdowns (most on the team) and MWC freshman of the year honors).

Moving on to Lakei Heimuli. I bet I would have loved this guy if I'd had the chance to see him play. But if you averaged less than 5 yards per carry I don't think you can be in contention either. 

Things become a bit trickier with Jenkins, Willis, and Brown. Ronney Jenkins and his 1,600+ yard season are freaking awesome, but when we look at it game-by-game there is a small gap between he and the big three. What I mean is Ronney averaged about 126 scrimmage yards per game in '98 which, yes, is superb. However it's 18 yards behind Jamaal's and Harvey's best seasons, and 46 behind Luke's. Those small differences matter when the competition is this close. Jenkins was a stud, and with a third season of excellent play is a no brainer in the GOAT conversation. But giving us only two years means he left too much meat on the bone. That keeps him out of the race for me. 

Willis' best rushing season ranks 13th all-time. Yikes. On the other hand, he played in a different era when BYU was rumored to only have 5 running plays and passing the ball was still the thing. On the other hand, injuries cost him two seasons. On the other hand, I once heard a respected voice in Cougar fandom give quite the speech about how Willis was the undisputed GOAT running back. I get it -- his highlights are electric and I covered the boatload of athletic catches he made in a prior post seen here. But the on-again off-again nature of his career is enough for me to hold him back. He was dynamite as a sophomore and freshman, but merely serviceable as an injured freshman and junior. It's a thin line but in the end I'm not troubled by keeping Jamal in the tier II crowd. 

Finally we come to Curtis Brown. This is the most interesting case for me. I personally remember Brown very fondly and when I first began this project I promoted him to the tier I class and planned to evaluate him as deeply as I will the big three. But most fans seem to think Brown didn't have enough athletic flash to be considered alongside the legendary runners. During last year's Fantasy Draft I watched a lot of Brown highlights and compared them to Jamal Willis -- I was debating between the two with my third pick -- and I tend to agree, Jamal just looked like a superior talent and better player. 

But Brown deserves praise for gaining the second most yards in BYU history, for being the only player to gain over 1,500 yards more than once, and for his excellent receiving chops. Despite being potentially inferior athletically I stand by my belief that he belongs in the same group as the trio. But ultimately I decided not to include him in part 2 of this quest (which is coming next week and will examine in detail the candidacies of Luke, Harvey, and Jamaal). If I had unlimited time and could evaluate Brown against all the criteria I'll be applying to those three ... well I probably would. But ultimately I chose not to because I felt that even if Brown is part of the tier I group, he's definitely fourth in the pecking order. 

And there you have it, 2,500 words spent looking into a question you already knew the answer to. As expected the GOAT title belongs to one of the Harvey-Luke-Jamaal trio. Now to find out which one. 

Coming next week - a 10,000 word marathon that ends with the crowning of BYU's greatest running back of all-time.

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