-- Wherein I display an obsession with snaps
There are a couple different ways to determine how deep a team is. Depth can be bolstered by talented backups, or experienced backups, but all too often fans or media conjure visions of grandiose depth based on best hope more than numbers. For today's post I wanted to look at BYU's non-primary contributors -- I'd use the word secondary but then we'd get confused between defensive backs -- and see how many snaps they've played in their careers compared to the primary contributors at their position.
For example, say Gunner Romney has played 1,200 career snaps and his backup has played 120. Under this scenario you could say Romney's backup is 10% as experienced as the player he would replace in the event of injury of fatigue. The higher the percentage, the more experienced BYU's "next man up" is, or put another way, the lower the percentage, the greater the dropoff in experience between the starter and his replacement.
Note that this post won't really attempt to determine how "good" these backups are, just how much they've seen the field. I will be giving a one sentence thought as to how talented the position is overall -- reflected by the Talent Concernometer -- but I'm not going to in depth on it. In depth, get it? On a post about depth? Ok we're off to a rough start.
I believe this exercise will be more meaningful after I've done it for a few years and we can compare numbers across teams, but I still think running this analysis for 2021 can shine the light on where BYU can and can't afford to have injuries.
In order to analyze the "backups" we obviously have to project some starters. At some positions this is obvious (center, linebacker, running back), at others the offseason competitions will eventually tell the tale (quarterback, safety, corner). At those positions of question I've given the player with the most snaps the starting job.
Let's get to it. All snaps referred to below represent career snaps.
QUARTERBACK
Starter: Baylor Romney (295 snaps)
Backups: Jaren Hall (144 snaps, 49%), Jacob Conover (0 snaps, 0%)
On the one hand you could twist this stat to dramatically state Romney has twice as much experience as Hall. Technically you'd be right, but the reality is the difference between the two is pretty meager. Baylor having a 151 snap lead on Hall translates to having played only two or three more games over the course of a career. And of Romney's 295 career snaps, 106 came during the voluminous garbage times of 2020. So in reality there's not much difference between the two primary competitors, which means if one goes down the backup wouldn't be starting from a disadvantaged position, at least relative to his predecessor.
But the more curious comparison here is with Conover. He has zero snaps sure, but again the difference between zero snaps and 200 snaps isn't that big right? Just a couple of games. I'm typically against starting freshman right out of the gate but the fact Conover ran the scout team all of 2020 means he may have as many reps as Hall and Romney.
Depth Concernometer: Not concerned
Talent Concernometer: I have no idea
RUNNING BACK
Starters: Tyler Allgeier (401 snaps), Lopini Katoa (1,025 snaps)
Backups: Sione Finau (191 snaps, 27% of starters average) Jackson McChesney (79 snaps, 11%)
Finau has played more than I remember. Mathematically he has only 27% as much experience as the combined average of Allgeier and Katoa, but that's largely because Katoa inflates the average by way of having played forever. I want Allgeier healthy because his talent appears to be a step above that of Katoa and the backups, but the one nice thing is I don't really worry that much about experience at running back. Inexperienced guys come in and succeed all the time. A freshman Jamaal Williams comes in and dominates. A young Tyler Allgeier makes plenty of things happen. Harvey Unga debuts with three touchdowns in his first real game. This isn't the position that leaves me scared with less experienced backups.
Depth Concernometer: Not very concerned
Talent Concerometer: Pleased with the starters
WIDE RECEIVER
Starters: Gunner Romney (992 snaps), Neil Pau'u (1,000 snaps), Brayden Cosper (217 snaps)
Backups: Keanu Hill (160 snaps, 22%) Chris Jackson (133 snaps, 18%), Kody Epps (119 snaps, 16%)
Losing Dax Milne hurts so much. Suddenly everyone unexpectedly climbs a rung on the totem pole and now Neil "no YAC" Pau'u11. Of the 18 players who caught passes for BYU last year, Neil ranked 16th in average YAC. is our second guy and Brayden Cosper with only a couple hundred snaps (and minimal targets) becomes an every down regular. That might not be true - the third starting spot might go to one of the guys listed by me as backups, but the point is after Romney and Pau'u the next four guys are all pretty inexperienced (although Chris Jackson does have JUCO reps that aren't included in the PFF snap figures). Gunner Romney hasn't been a beacon of health during his career; to lose him during 2021 leaves a new quarterback with newish receivers to ball with.
Depth Concernometer: Very concerned
Talent Concerometer: Mildly concerned (Pau'u as a #2 scares me. The fact that neither Epps or Jackson really broke into any games in a meaningful way scares me.)
TIGHT END/HYBRID
Starters: Isaac Rex (654 snaps), Dallin Hulkamania Holker (396 snaps)
Backups: Masen Wake (278 snaps, 53%), Carter Wheat (194 snaps, 37%)
Here we have a position of strength. Holker and Rex are both experienced and have shown chops in big games. Wake played a ton last year. Wheat has been in the mix.
Depth Concernometer: Not concerned
Talent Concerometer: Not concerned
OFFENSIVE LINE
Starting Tackles: Blake Freeland (954 snaps), Harris LaChance (294 snaps)
Starting Guards: Clark Barrington (916 snaps), Joe Tukuafu (340 snaps)
Starting Center: James Empey (2,225 snaps)
Backup Tackle: Ethan Atagi (31 snaps, 5% )
Backup Guard: Brayden Keim (21 snaps, 3%)
Backup Center: Connor Pay (112 snaps, 5%)
Pray for no injuries. BYU actually may patch together a decent starting offensive line despite losing legend Brady Christensen and experienced starters Chandon Herring and Tristen Hoge. But man if anyone goes down, the next guys up are about as green as they come. The one wildcard is Keanu Saleapaga, who played in '18 and '19 to the tune of 1,200+ snaps. He changes everything if he somehow manages to play in 2021.
Depth Concernometer: Extremely concerned
Talent Concernometer: Cautiously optimistic
DEFENSIVE LINE
Starting Defensive Ends: Uriah Leiataua (585 snaps), Earl Tuioti-Mariner (506 snaps)
Starting Defensive Tackles: Lorenzo Fauatea (698 snaps), Gabe Summers (379 snaps)
Backup Defensive Ends: Alden Tofa (265 snaps, 49%), Seleti Fevaleaki (100 snaps, 18%), Tyler Batty (96 snaps, 18%)
Backup Defensive Tackles: Atunaisa Mahe (255 snaps, 47%), Caden Haws (223 snaps, 41%)
BYU is not lacking for bodies along the defensive line. We can list a combined 5 backups with experience across the defensive line, while we could only list 3 offensive lineman backups. It's hard to know if any of these players are good though.
Depth Concernometer: Not concerned
Talent Concernometer: Not expecting anything good, so yes concerned
LINEBACKER
Starting Linebackers: Payton Wilgar (1,214 snaps), Keenan Pili (710 snaps), Max Tooley (750 snaps)
Backup Linebackers: Pepe Tanuvasa (426 snaps, 48%), Jackson Kaufusi (284 snaps, 32%) Drew Jensen (157 snaps, 18%)
I like this group. The 4th and 5th men (Pepe and Kaufusi) have reps and talent. Wilgar is two solid years away from putting his name up there with some greats. Tooley has played everywhere and is versatile as they come. What a strong position group.
Depth Concernometer: Minimal concern
Talent Concernometer: Minimal concern
CORNERS
Starting Corners: D'Angelo Mandell (914 snaps), Isaiah Herron (625 snaps), Keenan Ellis (507 snaps)
Backup Corners: Shamon Willis (440 snaps, 65%), Micah Harper (377 snaps, 55%), George Udo (279 snaps, 41%)
When Kalani took over I recall sound bites about how recruiting defensive backs would be emphasized during the new coaching tenure. It looks like that proclamation is coming to pass? I'm kind of shocked by how much experienced depth BYU has at a historically thin position. George Udo may not be fully healthy come fall 2021, but if he's out the 7th man up, Caleb Christensen, even has a 100 snaps to his name.
Depth Concernometer: Small concern
Talent Concernometer: Optimistic
SAFETIES
Starting Safeties: Chaz Ah You (481 snaps), Malik Moore (395 snaps)
Backup Safeties: Matt Criddle (212 snaps, 48%), Hayden Livingston (186 snaps, 42%)
I wrote last year about how BYU was doing a fantastic job at getting lots of corners experience, while simultaneously getting absolutely nobody reps at the safety position. And now we reap what we sow. Don't be fooled by the high percentages of the backups, this position group is light on safety reps. Last year Moore got 95 snaps at safety, while Chaz got 26 before getting injured. Not only is BYU not deep at safety, they're not even shallow at safety.
Depth Concernometer: Extremely concerned
Talent Concernometer: Extremely concerned
No comments:
Post a Comment