On the Rivalry Losing Streak
Despite the fact that our offense struggled to throw the ball, catch the ball, block for the thrower of the ball, and run to where the ball is supposed to go, loss number seven to Utah was the result of something else, something all too familiar.
Turnovers.
BYU's turnover problems against Utah have been well documented, presented in about every way imaginable, but just for fun I'll try a new approach to showcase how incomprehensible the numbers have been.
Fact: in the 7 game streak BYU has turned the ball over 25 times to Utah.
In the entire 2010 season BYU turned it over 21 times.
In 2011 BYU turned it over 27 times.
In 2012 BYU turned it over 25 times.
In 2013 BYU turned it over 21 times.
In 2015 BYU turned it over 20 times.
In 2016 BYU turned it over 19 times.
In summary BYU has more turnovers against Utah in 7 games than they do in most of their complete 13-game seasons. How big of an impact is this causing on the game? How big of an impact does the sun have on the earth? Consider this:
In the 7 game streak Utah has scored 16 offensive touchdowns. Of these 16, 10 have started in BYU territory (8 due to turnover, 2 due to punt return). Any guess where on average these drives following turnovers have started for Utah? The BYU 25-yard line. Woof. If that makes you feel sad prepare to feel worse.
The quick of math have noticed if Utah scored 16 touchdowns during the streak ... and 10 started in BYU territory ... then Utah has only scored 6 touchdowns against BYU on drives from their side of the field. And three of those six came in the 54-10 debacle of 2011. So let's rephrase this one more time. In 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017 Utah scored three touchdowns against BYU's defense when starting in their own territory. And BYU lost each of those games.
That is insane. That is what happens when you give the opposing team the ball three times a game on your own 25-yard line.
The question then becomes why is BYU turning it over so much against Utah? There are a number of factors. To piss off any Utah lurkers let's start with ...
Unlucky Bounces
Turnovers are inherently weird. There isn't substantial proof that certain defensive coaches or go-to techniques can consistently create turnovers, and that's because turnovers often hinge on the weird bounce of a weird ball. Fumble recoveries in particular are fluky, described by super-nerd and Grantland Hero Bill Barnwell as random acts. In this department the gods of football have frowned upon BYU. There have been 32 occasions during the streak where the ball has been fumbled to the ground. Of those 32 fumbles, Utah has recovered 20 to BYU's 12. The mathematic expectation for something as random as grabbing a bouncing oblong spheroid is right around 50%, meaning Utah has grabbed about 4 more fumbles than expected and vice versa for BYU.
Question: Do you think a fumble could have made a difference in 2010 (1 point loss), 2012 (3 point loss), or 2016 (1 point loss)?
Answer: I hate my life.
While the fumbles have been unkind the interception bounces have been downright cruel. You need look no farther than Saturday's game for the epitome of the sad bounce. On Utah's second interception a lineman batted Tanner's pass out of the air. That ball could've bounced one of a million ways I suppose, and usually for Utah that ball bounces into the air and right into the arms of a waiting linebacker. But this time the gods chose a different torment, dropping the ball straight down for once (Hallelujah!!) ... and straight into the kangaroo pouch of a waiting Utah lineman (WTF?!?!)
Contrast this with the best batted ball we saw from the BYU defense Saturday.
Warner deflects the pass, the ball ricochets 14-feet into the air, there are 4 Cougars standing in the immediate area ... and the ball falls helplessly to the ground. Sometimes things just don't break your way.
But as much as I'd enjoy attributing all these turnovers to luck this is only one part of the story. There are other factors at play, such as ...
Cracking Under Pressure
The most dominant BYU performance in a recent rivalry game belongs to Jonny Harline, he of 118-yards and three touchdowns fame. The most clutch BYU catch in a recent rivalry game belongs to Jonny Harline, he of "Five in a row won't happen!" fame. On Saturday the great one spoke.
For some reason BYU plays this game with the weight of the world on them. Utah couldn't care less. Play loose. Make a play.— Jonny Harline (@JonnyH13) September 10, 2017
For most fans this tweet came as a confirmation and not a revelation. In the 1980s BYU took a leap as a program and it was such a huge leap -- Heisman! Championship! Super Bowl QB! -- that we all assumed BYU would have an everlasting advantage over all their peers. But as the years went on Utah started winning games here and there, chipping away at that advantage. Have you ever held a huge lead in a game only to see the other team begin an improbable comeback? Do you remember how quickly the pressure mounted? You're supposed to beat that team. You're better than them. You've outplayed them the whole game. You have the lead! How are you letting them back in?
This is what BYU has been up against ever since Utah pitched those back-to-back 34-31 wins. Before that BYU had beaten Utah in 19 of the last 21 games. BYU was better than Utah. BYU had lapped Utah. BYU was not supposed to lose Utah ever. Suddenly they did.
And so for the majority of the 1990s and 2000s the rivalry game unfolded under that atmosphere. BYU had a decade-sized lead, Utah made an unlikely comeback, and BYU was left trying to hold on. Even as Utah equalized and at times surpassed BYU in talent, the expectation remained: you're supposed to beat them.
Then in 2010 the pressure morphed. Utah received a promotion to the Pac-12 and boy did BYU ever feel slighted (with reason). Suddenly the rivalry game expanded from "let's prove we're still top dog by beating our rival" to "let's prove to the entire world that the religiously bigoted Pac-12 made the wrong choice". I'm not a sports psychologist, but I'm gonna guess that didn't help with BYU's pressure problems.
But that's just a guess and all those last four paragraphs are all just a theory. Where's the evidence that BYU is cracking under pressure? Allow me to present the Parade of Drops, brought to you by Hawthorne Wipes.
The number of catches BYU has muffed over the years against Utah is shocking and no I'm not talking about Hifo and the failed final drive of last weekend. I'm talking about ...
... Rod Wilkerson and the day he killed Brandon Doman ...
... Harvey Unga and the clinching touchdown that wasn't ...
... Hunter Marshall and the case of nearly throwing my phone through the TV ...
... Cody Hoffman and the thwarted comeback ...
And so it goes. While our squad is dropping freebies Utah's backup tight ends have been grabbing one-handers over our best defenders.
But it gets worse! If drops are an indication that we're cracking under pressure, our field goal results are a testimony of the same. During the streak BYU has attempted 15 field goals against Utah and made just 8. That's a success rate of 53.3%! Extrapolated over the course of an entire season that would've ranked 122nd nationally last year. That's abysmal. How does that rate compare to BYU's typical performance?
In the past seven years BYU has hit on 74% of 147 field goal attempts. Somehow we're performing 20% worse just because we're lined up against Utah. Add in the drops and we're leaving points on the board at alarming rates. Is it nerves? Pressure? It's gotta be.
But another factor could be that ...
We're Secretly Average
Here's a whacko thought. Maybe we've turned the ball over and sucked for seven years in a row against Utah simply because we haven't been very good for seven years in a row and Utah has. Think about it. We haven't been consistently ranked in the top 25 in seven years. We haven't beat our rival in seven years. We hit the ten win milestone once (barely) in seven years.
What we have managed to do is start and end every season with a bang. Check out the names BYU has knocked off at the beginning of their past seasons.
2010 BYU beats Washington (game 1)
2011 BYU beats Ole Miss (game 1)
2012 BYU destroys Washington St (game 1)
2013 BYU destroys Texas (game 2)
2014 BYU destroys Texas (game 2)
2015 BYU beats Nebraska (game 1)
2016 BYU beats Arizona (game 1)
We've been on a roll at knocking off P5s to start the season. On the surface these wins look good and they are good. Unfortunately none of these teams ended up being anything other than ho hum the years we beat them. Now I don't intend to take anything away from this group of victories. Had you told me back in 2009 that we'd take down Ole Miss, Texas, Nebraska, and Washington over the next decade I'd have been thrilled. What I want to point out is these names are giving us an inflated impression of how good are team is at the start of the year.
Compounding this inflated evaluation is the fact that we always end the season on a roll thanks to Indy schedules leaving our worst opponents for last. Witness the end of season trends:
2010: win 6 of last 8
2011: win 9 of last 10
2012: win 4 of last 5
2013: win 7 of last 10
2014: win 4 of last 5
2015: win 7 of last 9
2016: win 8 of last 9
What's this all mean? Because of how we've started and finished we've always felt pretty good about our teams. And maybe that's a problem. Maybe the 2004 and 2005 seasons where BYU went 5-6 and 6-6 motivated the same players that would later lead BYU to 11-2 records in 2006 and 2007.
Wait am I really about to quote a phrase from one of those ridiculous business philosophy books that Bronco loved more than football itself? Heavens help me.
Maybe (gulp) ... maybe good really is the enemy of great.
(Shudders)
If that quote is in fact true it might be part of what is ailing our team. Every off-season we end on a streak and we think back to our impressive pelts won at the beginning of the year. Perhaps we gloss over the sufferings in the middle. And perhaps we're not as desperate in the off-season as a result.
But then again do I really want to see a couple of super crappy years just because there's a small chance of greater prosperity down the line? Nah, not really. I'd rather just see us upgrade our talent pool by way of ...Compounding this inflated evaluation is the fact that we always end the season on a roll thanks to Indy schedules leaving our worst opponents for last. Witness the end of season trends:
2010: win 6 of last 8
2011: win 9 of last 10
2012: win 4 of last 5
2013: win 7 of last 10
2014: win 4 of last 5
2015: win 7 of last 9
2016: win 8 of last 9
What's this all mean? Because of how we've started and finished we've always felt pretty good about our teams. And maybe that's a problem. Maybe the 2004 and 2005 seasons where BYU went 5-6 and 6-6 motivated the same players that would later lead BYU to 11-2 records in 2006 and 2007.
Wait am I really about to quote a phrase from one of those ridiculous business philosophy books that Bronco loved more than football itself? Heavens help me.
Maybe (gulp) ... maybe good really is the enemy of great.
(Shudders)
If that quote is in fact true it might be part of what is ailing our team. Every off-season we end on a streak and we think back to our impressive pelts won at the beginning of the year. Perhaps we gloss over the sufferings in the middle. And perhaps we're not as desperate in the off-season as a result.
Honor Code Changes
A confession. I did not attend BYU.
Decrease your appreciation of my fanhood if you must, but I'll stake my credentials against anyone.
I had a BYU football blog going back when dial-up was a thing.
I once chewed an entire pack of gum and stuck the pieces to the bottom of my seat when I visited Rice-Eccles for a high school playoff game.
I cried when BYU was screwed on back-to-back pass interferences in the Cotton Bowl.
I buried a high school rival who besmirched my name by calling me a Utah fan.
I snuck a radio into the MTC to listen to the 2005 BYU-Boston College game.
I dedicated Utah State's field to BYU the night before the 2008 matchup.
I was as destined to go to that school and cheer that football team as any person ever was.
Only I chose not to go because I didn't want a curfew while in college, because I didn't want to be outlawed from kickball if I hadn't shaved that morning, because I legitimately wasn't sure if you could wear flip flops on campus, because I didn't want to get in trouble if I ever had to go to the bathroom in a girls apartment. The Honor Code is kooky.
I love my religion. But I don't love the Code. If BYU filtered all the non-doctrinal weirdness out of the code, leaving the stuff that actually matters -- Law of Chastity, Word of Wisdom, etc -- BYU would still be the most restrictive university in the nation by far wouldn't it? What's the harm in changing it? The brand remains the same and maybe you snag one extra LDS athlete who otherwise may have been scared away like yours truly.
Sadly I don't expect the HC to go anywhere anytime soon. Assuming all remains status quo our next bet at improving will come from ...
Top Notch Coaches
Our defensive coaches are there. Well, kind of. We give up yards, we can't get sacks, we seem beatable at almost every position. And yet looking over our last nine P5 games here's what our defense has held our opponents to.
Arizona to 16
Utah to 13
UCLA to 17
West Virginia to 28
Michigan State to 14
Mississippi State to 21 (in 2OT)
Boise State to 28
LSU to 20 (I'm attributing the last 7 points from the fake punt to the offense)
Utah to 19 (with 7 of those coming off of ... you guessed it, turnovers)
If you took a time machine back to July of 2016 and saw those totals for our opponents what would you guess BYU's record was in those games? Surely you'd have penciled in Arizona, 2016 Utah, UCLA, Michigan State, and Mississippi State as wins, with toss-ups for the West Virginia, Boise State, LSU, and 2017 Utah games. So maybe you'd guess 7-2 if you were optimistic, maybe 5-4 if you weren't.
Our actual record in those games? 3-6.
Thank you offense for murdering us. What an incredible chance these nine games were to make some P5 noise and we blew it. Which begs the question ...
Can Ty Detmer be a Good OC?
I don't know. I'm not smart enough to know. But there are scary signs.
North Dakota scored more against Utah than BYU did.
Chattanooga scored more against LSU than BYU did.11. Fun trivia. Can you name Chattanooga's mascot without internet aid? Yeah me neither.
Cougarboard folk are calling for video gamers to get a shot as OC and I'm not sure if it's a joke or not.
Before we go burying Ty it must be noted our offensive talent is pretty terrible. How do we know that? A white, returned missionary, freshman who hadn't played football since the year 2013 stepped onto the field and immediately by leaps and bounds was our best player. Heaven knows I love the Manbush, but that can't be a good sign. Where is Trinnaman? The guy has 22 catches in his last 14 games. Where is Micah Simon? Margin Hooks would really like to know. Where's a running back? Hopefully inside Tolutau.
One sign I interpret from Ty as a positive? He seems willing to adapt. Last year's Utah game saw some of the worst playcalling in BYU history. Taysom throws a pick-six in his first play of the game. You know what Taysom's thinking on the sideline? We played these guys two games ago and we had two pick-sixes and almost a third. We turned it over five times in a row. Historically we turn it over three times a game against these guys. Historically every deflected pass ends up an interception. Oh and let's also mention the crowd is going bonkers. Given these thoughts I think it's fair to assume Taysom was rattled. So what does Ty do to help his QB? He calls passes in 15 of BYU's NEXT 18 PLAYS.
I didn't understand it then and don't understand it now. BYU had two of the best runners in the program's entire history on the field. Instead of calling runs to calm things down Detmer continued asking his rattled QB to throw into the belly of the beast.
BUT. That wasn't the case this year. Ty came into the game with a much more balanced attack. Even though the running game was going nowhere he at least tried to help Tanner, and that willingness to change is to me a sign of an adaptive mind. Will it be enough to fix our offense? I'm not sure.
By the way, since our stretch goal on offense is to get up to New Mexico levels of production it's a good time for me to write one of my favorite things.
Obligatory Ode to Max Hall
I consider myself the preeminent Max Hall defender in all of Cougardom. Certainly I sound braggadocious but the man retweeted my opus to him, and what greater celebrity is there than being retweeted by one? (Trust me I'm joking) I'll spare you the statarama this time (he actually played pretty good in that FSU game you know!) and just ask this question. How many more years of bad QB play will it require before some fans recognize how great he was? Check out these responses from a Facebook BYU fan group regarding Hall's ranking among the all-time BYU QBs.
Outside the top ten!?!?!?!?! Are you kidding me?!!?? The curse of under-appreciating Max is real folks.
Pass Interference Update
Let's get back to talking about why we lose to Utah. Here's a fun one. By the stats BYU draws a pass interference penalty on average once every 42 throws. In the 7 game streak against Utah they've drawn 3 pass interference calls on 313 throws, a rate of one pass interference for every 104 throws.
Hmmm. What does this mean?
It could be another indicator of our suboptimal talent level (e.g. Utah doesn't need to interfere to stop our receivers)
It could be an indicator that some of this is going on.
Or it could just be a statistical fluke, like a lot of the unfortunate stuff that has afflicted BYU in the rivalry game as of late.
Whatever it is, it's weird. Let's finish this thing before I start looking up more annoying videos of Utah pass interferences that never were.
Summary
The losing streak is a lot of things. It's failure to perform under pressure. It's weird bounces. It's botched field goals. It's reflective of the fact that we haven't been great for a while. Where did we go wrong, asks the angry gum chewer from 30 Rock? Detroit?
No angry gum chewer, it wasn't Detroit. It was Bronco.
Fortunately we have a coach who likes football now. Will he be enough to dig us out of a talent drought that saw us have a measly 4 guys drafted to the NFL in the last 7 years? That is our hope. That is our dream.
In Kalani we trust.
Let's get back to talking about why we lose to Utah. Here's a fun one. By the stats BYU draws a pass interference penalty on average once every 42 throws. In the 7 game streak against Utah they've drawn 3 pass interference calls on 313 throws, a rate of one pass interference for every 104 throws.
Hmmm. What does this mean?
It could be another indicator of our suboptimal talent level (e.g. Utah doesn't need to interfere to stop our receivers)
It could be an indicator that some of this is going on.
Or it could just be a statistical fluke, like a lot of the unfortunate stuff that has afflicted BYU in the rivalry game as of late.
Whatever it is, it's weird. Let's finish this thing before I start looking up more annoying videos of Utah pass interferences that never were.
Summary
The losing streak is a lot of things. It's failure to perform under pressure. It's weird bounces. It's botched field goals. It's reflective of the fact that we haven't been great for a while. Where did we go wrong, asks the angry gum chewer from 30 Rock? Detroit?
No angry gum chewer, it wasn't Detroit. It was Bronco.
Fortunately we have a coach who likes football now. Will he be enough to dig us out of a talent drought that saw us have a measly 4 guys drafted to the NFL in the last 7 years? That is our hope. That is our dream.
In Kalani we trust.
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