PFF Curiosities - Spring Edition

-- An all offense look at some PFF stats of note

How does Slovis differ from Hall?

One big way is Slovis doesn't attack down field as much as Hall did. Passes thrown 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage made up 46% of Jaren's passes; they only make up 37% of Kedon's passes. Meanwhile Slovis throws short passes (those between 0 and 10 yards) on 44% of his attempts compared to 31% for Hall. 

Average depth of target (ADOT) reveals more of the same. Hall on average is throwing about two yards further than Slovis on a given pass (11 yards for Hall versus 9 for Slovis). It doesn't matter if the pocket is clean (ADOT of 10 for Hall vs 8 for Slovis) or pressure is building (ADOT of 14 for Hall vs 12 for Slovis) -- Hall simply tried to stretch the field more than Slovis has at this point in his career. 

Given the above it's no surprise to see that Slovis gets the ball out faster than Hall. By average it isn't a stark difference (2.88 seconds per throw for Hall, vs 2.79 for Slovis) but when pressured Slovis is moving the ball much quicker (4.0 seconds to throw for Hall vs 3.6 for Slovis). Same thing when blitzed (2.8 seconds for Hall vs 2.5 seconds for Slovis). 

Is one approach superior than the other? I don't know. The Madden player inside me wishes to see deep shots taken every series but I think an offense can succeed under either paradigm. 

Where is Slovis better than Hall? 

Slovis' completion percentage when under pressure is a few ticks above Hall's (Hall completed 38% of his under pressure passes; Slovis completes 45%). Slovis also has way more experience. Hall played 1,606 snaps at quarterback, with 841 of those being passing snaps. Slovis has played 2,443 snaps with 1,450 passing snaps. That's quite a chunk of additional time behind center for Slovis. 

Where is Slovis worse than Hall? 

Obviously it's the running game. Look, Slovis isn't a statue in the pocket -- in fact I was shocked to find that Slovis and Hall were sacked at similar rates per dropback. They even scramble about the same amount (Hall scrambled on 5% of his dropbacks vs 3% for Slovis) and the difference in yards per scramble isn't insane (about 8 yards per scramble for Hall vs 6 for Slovis). 

But the designed runs. Ye gods. Shield your eyes. 

PFF shows Hall running for 637 yards on designed runs over his career. For Slovis they have him at ... negative 50 yards. They have Hall forcing 25 missed tackles; Slovis, 7. PFF credits Hall with 403 yards after contact; Slovis, 98. 

And finally, the big one. For first downs generated by running, PFF credits Hall with 68 conversions; for Slovis only 14. And again, all of this is with Slovis having played an extra 800 snaps of football. 

At some point next season we'll be asking ourselves why BYU's offense is so much worse than it was compared to 2020 through 2022. It might be because Puka is gone. It might be because of the increased competition in the Big 12. But it might also be that we simply no longer are getting two free first downs a game from our QB running the ball. 

How might BYU help Slovis? 

Hall used some form of play-action on a whopping 41% of his passing snaps during his career.11. That number is likely inflated by RPOs that end up in passes but still. Slovis cashed in on that same benefit on only 27% of his passes. Inasmuch as BYU can continue to run the ball well, an increase in play-action attempts should make life easier for Slovis. 

Additionally Slovis has been under pressure more in his career than Hall usually was (28% of Kedon's dropbacks were pressured versus 23% of Hall's.) Will BYU's line be good enough to give Kedon more time than he's used to? Or will the Big 12 erase the gains BYU has made in pass blocking? 

Enough about Slovis. How do you replace Puka Nacua?
You don't. 

The idea of easily replacing a superstar is one of my biggest pet peeves in sports discourse. Imagine it's October 2021 and you're basking in the all-time season Tyler Allgeier is putting together. You celebrate Allgeier all year. You watch him stop the losing streak against Utah. You compare him to the greatest players in BYU history. You laud his accomplishments. You brag about him in the office. You witness him gain the most scrimmage yards by a BYU player EVER against Virginia; you witness him post the best rushing season by yardage ever. In the spring you become a Falcons fan when he's drafted. 

And then once he's gone ... you immediately convince yourself that the next man up will simply slot into the lineup and replace what that historic person you celebrated all year did. It sounds insane and yet here's what people were saying about Brooks last summer.

Yes, Chris Brooks put up some numbers -- nearly a 1,000 scrimmage yard season! -- but he didn't replicate the impact that Tyler had. How could he? Allgeier delivered the most durable season in BYU history, the most statistically gaudy rushing season in BYU history, and the most statistically gaudy single yardage game ever in BYU history. He turned plays like this one against USC where he was surrounded by three defenders into first downs. (black arrows show USC defenders, blue arrow shows Allgeier)

You don't just replace that.

It's the same with Puka. You might find a guy who can gain receiving yards, but you can't find a guy who can make this catch.

Puka was graded the 2nd highest WR in college football last year. Second! He was 3rd nationally in yards per route run, suggesting that with a little health luck he could've threatened for the national receiving crown, which would have made my pre-season prediction look a lot better. 

Puka was third nationally in rushing yards after contact. (among WRs/TEs)

Puka was 23rd nationally in PFF's elusive metric.22. Among WRs with at least 52 touches over the course of the season. Why 52 touches? That's four touches per game (or one touch per quarter) which seems the least one should expect of a premier player. He was 7th in 2021. 

Puka was an extremely special player. His stats never rose to the volume of the legends because of injuries, but his underlying talent is comparable to a Collie. And I say that as a Collie worshiper. Collie is documented on this blog as my favorite BYU player of all-time. I don't compare anyone to him. Until now.

So how do you replace Puka? Say it with me -- you don't. A better question would be ...

How can BYU improve their passing game? 

One possible answer? By generating more yards after the catch.

Now I'll be honest - I don't know how you generate more yards after the catch. I just know that BYU isn't good at it. 

Here's where our best YAC-generators of the last 9 years rank nationally in terms of YAC on a per reception basis.  

2022: Puka, 49th

2021: Puka, 60th

2020: Romney, 91st

2019: Hifo, 137th

2018: Hifo, 94th

2017: Didn't have a player in the top 200 

2016: Didn't have a player in the top 200 

2015: Juergens, 172nd

2014: Juergens, 38th

In summary only twice in nine years have we placed a WR in the top-50 nationally in YAC. Not once have we had one in the top-25. 

What if we consider YAC from a volume standpoint instead of on a per catch basis? Still not great. Over the last few years there are usually about 100 college WRs per season who generate over 300 yards after the catch. 100 guys every year. Yet BYU has seen only two players go over 300 YAC in the last 9 years: Milne in 2020 against the Covid-crew and Puka in 2022. That's it. 

Curiously Milne and Puka are also our only two receivers to (likely) be drafted over that same time frame so maybe YAC is simply the domain of the athletically elite? Maybe there's nothing you can do to scheme it up? And yet ...

WR screens are increasing

BYU screen passes to WRs have been on the climb over the last few years. 

2020: 24 attempts

2021: 28 attempts

2022: 48 attempts

Quick throws to receivers would be one way to increase YAC, right? I'll be keeping an eye on this to see if it comes down now that Puka is gone. It's easy to presume BYU leaned on these quick passes more in '21 and '22 because they trusted Puka to make a defender miss. With him moving on maybe BYU moves on from the WR screen as well. But I hope not. Let's put the ball in our guys hands and see if we have playmakers.

A potential point of chemistry

Back to Slovis for a moment. Remember how frequently Slovis throws passes in the zero-to-ten-yard range? That just happens to be the spot where BYU's best 2023 receiver (Kody Epps) does his damage. About half of Epps' targets and completions in 2022 came in this short area. In fact BYU rarely targeted Epps 20 yards or more down the field. Last season Puka, Roberts, Cosper, Hill, and Rex all caught more deep passes than Epps did. 

In theory this could make for a nice mashup between Slovis and Epps. Pairing a quarterback who likes to throw the ball most frequently where his best target likes to catch it.

Finally, the big question. Does 2019 Slovis exist anymore?

All this talk of Slovis and I have no idea who he really is as a QB. He wasted years playing for a USC coach that was so horrible he now resides at Georgia Southern. He's been injured and played for a weird team in Pittsburgh. Is he the trash can who completed 58% of his passes against ACC competition? Or is he the guy that one PFF author called the most accurate thrower in college football? Check this excerpt out:

That snippet is from all the way back in spring 2020. How closely Slovis resembles his freshman USC form or his senior Pitt form will determine how BYU's season goes.