Witness:
The most passing yards in one season by a QB to a WR in BYU history? Max Hall to Austin Collie (1,538).
The most touchdown passes between one QB and one WR, spanning entire careers? Max Hall to Austin Collie (22).
The most passing yards from one QB to one WR spanning entire careers? Max Hall to ... whoa! Dennis Pitta? Surprise me. But Max Hall to Austin Collie is second on the list. And I guess if you want to get specific and go most career passing yards from one QB to one WR per game ... well then we're back to Max Hall to Austin Collie, who averaged 96 yards per game from Max, compared to 70 yards per game to Pitta.
In other words Max Hall to Austin Collie was BYU's version of Stockton to Malone. People knew it was coming and people could not stop it. How do we know that? Because the NCAA record for games with 100-yards receiving in one season is 12, set by Justin Blackmon in 2010. Max Hall and Austin Collie came one short of that record. They ended the 2008 season with 11 consecutive 100-yard games. Do you know how insane that is?
You'd think defenses would shade Collie's way as it became apparent he was the best receiver in the country, or after Dennis Pitta got hurt near the year end, or after realizing Max Hall would target him 13 times a game. But it didn't matter. Collie just kept churning out 100-yard games like he was walking his dog around the block.
Sometimes I rattle off stats and I'm not sure folks understand how significant they are so let's try a comparison game. Austin Collie went over 100-yards receiving 11 times during 2008. From 2016 to 2019 BYU as a team only did that 7 times. As a team. Over the course of four seasons.
Austin Collie had over 100-yards receiving 17 times in his career. That's more than Gunner Romney, Dax Milne, Aleva Hifo, Neil Pau'u, and Matt Bushman combined.
During Kalani's coaching tenure BYU as an entire team averages 4 receivers going over 100-yards per season. Collie tripled that by himself in 2008.
Ok now I'm going off the rails. I apologize. Austin Collie is my favorite player of all-time so I get a bit wordy when talking about his excellency.
The point of today's post is to ask if Jaren Hall and Puka Nacua can approach the Stockton-to-Malone level of clobbering that Max Hall and Austin Collie delivered.
Spoiler alert ... they probably can't. Puka would have to record 1,781 receiving yards this season to match the Hall-Collie combined career yardage.
He'd have to catch 123 passes to match them on career receptions.
He'd need 16 touchdown passes to match them in that category.
In order to produce a 123 catch, 1,781 yard, 16 touchdown season Puka would have to duplicate Collie's historic 2008 season, and then sprinkle an extra 20% of production on top of it. Or to put it another way, Puka would have to essentially double his yardage (805 yards) and triple his catches (43) from 2021.
BYU's never had a receiver go over 1,700 yards. Or 1,600 yards. So we're off to a rough start.
But I'm not ready to slam the door just yet. Neil Pau'u and Samson Nacua were targeted 101 times last year and their departures open a nice chunk of receiving opportunity for someone. I imagine the person who is best on the team at getting open will probably soak up a good percentage of those targets.
The most touchdown passes between one QB and one WR, spanning entire careers? Max Hall to Austin Collie (22).
The most passing yards from one QB to one WR spanning entire careers? Max Hall to ... whoa! Dennis Pitta? Surprise me. But Max Hall to Austin Collie is second on the list. And I guess if you want to get specific and go most career passing yards from one QB to one WR per game ... well then we're back to Max Hall to Austin Collie, who averaged 96 yards per game from Max, compared to 70 yards per game to Pitta.
In other words Max Hall to Austin Collie was BYU's version of Stockton to Malone. People knew it was coming and people could not stop it. How do we know that? Because the NCAA record for games with 100-yards receiving in one season is 12, set by Justin Blackmon in 2010. Max Hall and Austin Collie came one short of that record. They ended the 2008 season with 11 consecutive 100-yard games. Do you know how insane that is?
You'd think defenses would shade Collie's way as it became apparent he was the best receiver in the country, or after Dennis Pitta got hurt near the year end, or after realizing Max Hall would target him 13 times a game. But it didn't matter. Collie just kept churning out 100-yard games like he was walking his dog around the block.
Sometimes I rattle off stats and I'm not sure folks understand how significant they are so let's try a comparison game. Austin Collie went over 100-yards receiving 11 times during 2008. From 2016 to 2019 BYU as a team only did that 7 times. As a team. Over the course of four seasons.
Austin Collie had over 100-yards receiving 17 times in his career. That's more than Gunner Romney, Dax Milne, Aleva Hifo, Neil Pau'u, and Matt Bushman combined.
During Kalani's coaching tenure BYU as an entire team averages 4 receivers going over 100-yards per season. Collie tripled that by himself in 2008.
Ok now I'm going off the rails. I apologize. Austin Collie is my favorite player of all-time so I get a bit wordy when talking about his excellency.
The point of today's post is to ask if Jaren Hall and Puka Nacua can approach the Stockton-to-Malone level of clobbering that Max Hall and Austin Collie delivered.
Spoiler alert ... they probably can't. Puka would have to record 1,781 receiving yards this season to match the Hall-Collie combined career yardage.
He'd have to catch 123 passes to match them on career receptions.
He'd need 16 touchdown passes to match them in that category.
In order to produce a 123 catch, 1,781 yard, 16 touchdown season Puka would have to duplicate Collie's historic 2008 season, and then sprinkle an extra 20% of production on top of it. Or to put it another way, Puka would have to essentially double his yardage (805 yards) and triple his catches (43) from 2021.
BYU's never had a receiver go over 1,700 yards. Or 1,600 yards. So we're off to a rough start.
But I'm not ready to slam the door just yet. Neil Pau'u and Samson Nacua were targeted 101 times last year and their departures open a nice chunk of receiving opportunity for someone. I imagine the person who is best on the team at getting open will probably soak up a good percentage of those targets.
How do we know Puka is the best on the team at getting open? Well there's the eye test. In the rivalry game the Utes sent their best corner -- Clark Phillips III11. Utah's highest rated recruit ever and a '22 pre-season all-american. -- exclusively against Puka even though he hadn't played a down for BYU up to that point. Puka got open against him for four catches and had two other plays where he'd clearly beaten Clark but the pass didn't land. (check the 32:48 and 49:11 mark of the youtubes if interested)
And then there's the numbers test. Ever heard of yards per route run? Puka's 2021 rank in this metric was 7th in the country. Need a refresher on yards per route run? It's kind of like yards per carry for a running back, but in this case it's yards per opportunity for receivers, measuring how many yards you generate per snap you're on the field. Think of it this way. Which receiver would you rather have? The guy who gains 1,000 yards receiving who played 500 passing snaps or the guy who gains 1,000 yards but played only 100 passing snaps?
And then there's the numbers test. Ever heard of yards per route run? Puka's 2021 rank in this metric was 7th in the country. Need a refresher on yards per route run? It's kind of like yards per carry for a running back, but in this case it's yards per opportunity for receivers, measuring how many yards you generate per snap you're on the field. Think of it this way. Which receiver would you rather have? The guy who gains 1,000 yards receiving who played 500 passing snaps or the guy who gains 1,000 yards but played only 100 passing snaps?
The player who met the 1,000 yard mark in fewer snaps is who gets open more easily, who makes the most of his reps, who simply demands the ball whenever he gets snaps. That's Puka. Last year Puka was on the field less than Neil Pau'u but put up better stats because he was too good; there was no choice but to throw to him.
So if Puka is one of the national leaders in getting open and making the most of his opportunities then what happens if he is on the field more? Puka ran 234 routes in 2021. Compare that so some receiver contemporaries from seasons past. Dax Milne ran 317 snaps in 2020. Matt Bushman ran 390 in 2019. Mitch Mathews ran 443 in 2015. Jordan Leslie ran a whopping 467 in 2014.
I included the Mitch Mathews and Jordan Leslie numbers just for shock value; we have to toss those out since they came in the hilarious Go Fast Go Hard era. But let's imagine Puka can stay healthy enough to match 2019 Bushman with 390 snaps. If he averages the same yards per route run from last year over 390 snaps that'd give Puka a 1,341 yard season which would bypass 2012 Hoffman and 1990 Boyce to give him the 2nd-best season in Cougar history.
Then there's the Tyler Allgeier factor. With the record-setter now on the Falcons, and with Jaren Hall dripping with quarterback experience, wouldn't we expect to see BYU pass the ball more this year? In Collie's 2008 heyday BYU split their offense passing 58% of the time and running 42%. In 2021 BYU passed 48% of the time and ran 52% of the time. That difference translates to about 87 additional passes in '08 vs '21. That makes sense to me -- if you have Austin Collie on your team you should pass more. If you have Tyler Allgeier on your team you should run more. I know, I know, revolutionary thoughts by yours truly, feel free to leave a tip.
So say BYU passes 50 more times in '22. Do 15 of those passes go to Puka? Does he catch 11 of them? Is that an extra 100 yards added to the tally? When your chasing history every yard matters.
What else could help Puka threaten history? What else is Puka good at? Everything. Among receivers who had a high volume of contested passes thrown their way, Puka was 10th nationally in winning those duels.22. Per PFF. Minimum 15 contested passes to the WR.
So say BYU passes 50 more times in '22. Do 15 of those passes go to Puka? Does he catch 11 of them? Is that an extra 100 yards added to the tally? When your chasing history every yard matters.
What else could help Puka threaten history? What else is Puka good at? Everything. Among receivers who had a high volume of contested passes thrown their way, Puka was 10th nationally in winning those duels.22. Per PFF. Minimum 15 contested passes to the WR.
In terms of yards after contact, Puka was 2nd best on the team behind Allgeier. Which is good. But for even better consider PFF's elusivity score -- a metric which rewards yards after contact and creating missed tackles -- where Puka ranked 10th in the entire country among receivers.33. Minimum 30 receptions. The guy can get open and apparently he can stay open after the catch.
Then again yards after catch is actually one area BYU could help juice Nacua's numbers. Despite his elusiveness Nacua only gained 267 yards after the catch, which ranked 107th in the country among receivers. Is there a way BYU can scheme some easy catch-and-run plays for Puka? Dax Milne recorded 397 YAC in 2020 ... hard to say if that was courtesy of the easier schedule, intentional scheming, or just a couple fluke bombs like the first play of the Houston game. Either way an extra 130 yards of YAC would go a long way in enhancing the Hall-Nacua combo.
How does the presence of a talented colleague like Gunner Romney or the Rex/Holker tight end collective play into things? I'm not sure. There were 125 targets Collie could have had in 2008 that went to Pitta and Unga instead. But no doubt their presence eased the burden on Collie as well. I'm thinking for Puka this is a wash.
How does the more challenging 2022 season factor into this? Again, I'm not sure. On the one hand playing tougher teams might leave BYU trailing more often which could benefit Nacua as BYU plays catch-up and passes more. On the other hand if tougher teams can pressure Hall easier or neutralize Romney or Brooks then maybe they can devote extra resources to shutting down Nacua. I'd guess overall the tougher schedule lowers the potential ceiling. But then again I assumed that would be the case for Allgeier last season too and uh yeah I was way off on that one.
Woof this is getting long. Let's get to prediction time. I can't imagine Nacua having a Collie-esque season, but I'm convinced he's the best receiver BYU has had since Collie, even if he hasn't yet put up a season as gaudy as Milne or Hoffman or even Mitch Mathews. If he can stay healthy, if he can churn out a drop-free season, and if ARod calls more passes I think Nacua will deliver the second-best yardage season in BYU history. That means the Puka and Hall pairing may be more along the lines of Deron Williams to Carlos Boozer than Stockton to Malone, but hey that combo was good enough for one Western Conference Finals which is more than most Jazz teams can say.
The prediction: 81 receptions, 1,287 yards, 8 touchdowns.
PS - I rocked my WR prediction last year! I forecasted Neil Pau'u at 42 receptions, 580 yards, and 4 touchdowns. His final numbers? 46 receptions(!), 526 yards(!), and 6 touchdowns. Although I shouldn't take too much credit ... had Pau'u staid healthy he'd have surpassed my numbers easily.
But imagine if I were only off by 4 receptions and 54 yards on this year's prediction? The NFL would be calling. But frankly that might be the case no matter what happens this year.
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