-- Diving into PFF to find (hopefully) interesting stats
Zach Wilson on Fire
When you take into account on-target passes that are dropped by receivers, as well as passes intentionally thrown away to avoid pressure or stop the clock, you can identify a quarterback's true completion percentage. When you apply such a formula to Zach Wilson the numbers say he's completing 87% of his passes.
Holy smokes.
The accuracy is extending down the field as well, where Wilson has completed 5 of 7 attempts that sailed further than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Of the two incompletions, PFF credits one as a drop, meaning his adjusted accuracy on deep passes is 6 for 7, or a robust 86%. For context, since 2014, BYU averages a 30% completion rate on passes 20 yards or deeper.
Double holy smokes.
Part of this success (maybe a lot?) is due to playing a team that didn't practice and a team that looks like they didn't practice. Part of this success is due to an ever-improving offensive line that is winning in the trenches against these overmatched foes. Take 2018 and 2019 as example: in those two years Zach was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks to pass. This year he's being pressured only 15% of the time. In terms of volume he's only faced pressure 7 times on 47 dropbacks.
The question that will persist this whole year is if BYU's success means anything. 2020 Navy isn't 2019 Hawaii. 2020 Houston isn't 2019 USC. But competition aside, Zach Wilson is on fire.
Who Got Dem Snaps (Pass Catcher Edition)
Against Navy, Neil Pau'u surprised me as the receiver on the field for the highest number of snaps. Against Troy, Romney jumped Pua'u (49 snaps for Romney vs 43 for Pau'u) but Pau'u still somehow was on the field for more plays than every other receiver, including Milne. The big surprise was seeing Cosper get 31 snaps, Epps get 22 (Hallelujah! He's not an insta-bust as I feared last week), and Keanu Hill 26. I want to see tons more of these guys. I believe the ceilings of Cosper, Epps, Hill, and Jackson are higher than Pau'u; especially Epps (caught more passes in one game in high school than Pau'u has in his career) and Cosper (was foretold by a grandpa in my neighborhood as the best WR he'd seen play at Bingham in 90 years).
Oddly, Pau'u is seeing all of his reps come from the slot, as opposed to out wide. 76% of Pau'u snaps see him line up in the slot, a position generally reserved for quicker, nimble fellows who can create space and get open. On the flip side, I'm more accustomed to seeing tall folk on the outside who can use their size to compete for deep balls. I guess what I'm saying is I'd have guessed we'd see Milne in the slot and Pau'u on the edge, but Milne lives on the outside, only lining up in the slot 5 times all season. This isn't a complaint - just a curiosity. I'm guessing maybe Pau'u's lack of speed is less detrimental over the middle against linebackers?
Ode to Payton Wilgar
Wilgar was a freshman walk-on last year and I pointed to the idea of him being a day one starter as a sign of how much trouble our linebacker core was facing. Give me all the crow, for I must eat. On defense, no one has been on the field for as many snaps this year as Payton Wilgar. He went from walk-on to PFF freshman all-american and is now the pillar of our defense as a sophomore. Recruiting can be such a crapshoot.
Wilgar leads the team in pressures (2 sacks, 3 QB hits, 1 QB hurry); he leads the team in pass rush success rate, creating pressure on 42% of his pass rushes; he's covered slot receivers more than any other linebacker, allowing only 2 catches for 11 yards; and he has the best run defense PFF grade on the team. He's been an absolute stud.
Who Got Dem Snaps (RB Edition)
Katoa, as in week 1, outsnapped Allgeier significantly (39 snaps for Katoa to 25 for Allgeier) and was on the field for the majority of the passing downs (19 to 8). However, in touches and production, these dudes continue to be identical. Katoa got 11 carries this week; Allgeier 10. On the season Katoa has created 9 missed tackles, Allgeier 8. Allgeier has had 4 explosive runs of 15 yards or more this season. Katoa has 3.
The one area of difference is in the passing game. Katoa is the third most targeted player on the team, and is averaging a solid 3 catches and 30 yards per game. Keep taking those free yards Zach! Katoa's viability in the passing game is a huge weapon, so long as he continues to be productive while running the ball as well.
The Replacements
Tristen Hoge is out as we all know with the virus and a side helping of pneumonia because if you're a BYU player that was highly recruited you're automatically cursed to undergo a series of unbelievably brutal health consequences (see Ross Apo and his 25 surgeries, Troy Hinds and his old man back, Justin Sorensen who was bit by poisonous spider and fell off a curb, Keiffer Longson who was hit by cars twice). Who manned the guard spot in his absence? Chandon Herring slid over from his tackle position to fill in for Hoge, while Blake Freeland and 2019 BYU BIFF winner Harris LaChance split reps at Herring's vacated tackle spot.
Another notable starter in Chaz Ah You was out with a season ending injury. Kavika Fonua and Jared Kapisi filled in for his empty safety spot.
CB Keenan Ellis started alongside Troy Warner at corner against Navy, but was out last week presumably with the virus. As has been publicized elsewhere, freshman Micah Harper made a nice debut playing 34 snaps in backup duty, but George Udo (32 snaps), Chris Wilcox (31 snaps), and D'Angelo Mandell (24 snaps) each got a lot of run as well.
Pepe Tanuvasa, One Trick Pony?
In the season opener against Navy Pepe was on the field for 36 snaps, which was one snap shy of the team-leading 37 that Wilgar, Kaufusi, and Zayne Anderson had. To translate: Pepe was on the field as much as anyone in the Navy game. At the time I wondered if this was because Pepe had proven himself over the course of the off-season, or if he was being used specifically against Navy because he transferred from the academy and knew all their secrets.
Pepe played 11 snaps against Troy. Maybe this was because we used more defensive backs against the Troy passing attack, or maybe this is because the coaches just want to employ Pepe as an option stopper. Time shall tell. At least if we reschedule Army we'll get to see him again.
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