Matt Bushman came to BYU with as much hype as any skill position player since Austin Collie. Before playing a snap he was presumed to revive the once glorious tight end position. Before playing a snap he was expected to add his name to the list of legends alongside Hudson, Smith, Brown, Pitta, and Harline. Before playing a snap he had received the best and most graphic nickname I've ever given a player: Matt ManBush.
With the news of his season-ending achilles rupture we might be at the end of Bushman's career. Or we might not. Maybe his draft stock isn't what we think and he comes back in 2021 to star alongside a veteran Zach Wilson. That would be fantastic, though as of late it seems like fantastic isn't really what goes on at BYU. For proof, you might recall that our second best basketball team of the last thirty years had its NCAA tournament chances ruined by a bat in China. You might recall in 2001 we had the best running back in the country and were undefeated ... and then he got knocked out for the season. Or that the most dynamic athlete in BYU history got four season ending injuries, three of which came against the same team, two of which came against the same player. Or you might remember every weird bounce going Utah's way during the last decade of rivalry clashes.
Yes, I can wallow with the best of them. Where was I?
In the wake of his achilles tear we may be at the end of Matt Bushman's BYU career, which means it's legacy check time. If the Manbush era is indeed over, has he lived up to what we hoped for back in 2017?
Normally when evaluating BYU players I turn to my patented "Hansen Hall of Fame" framework, which grades a player based on the following six categories.
Statistical Domination: I love statistics. If you own the stats, you own my heart.
Career Success, which evaluates how the player's career unfolded in terms of wins, bowl games, awards, rankings, etc.
Level of Unstoppability: Could this player spark a rally on his individual talent alone? Could this player thrive despite being the entire focus of the opponent's attention? If the answer is yes, you'll climb up my hall of fame rankings quickly.
Level of Unstoppability: Could this player spark a rally on his individual talent alone? Could this player thrive despite being the entire focus of the opponent's attention? If the answer is yes, you'll climb up my hall of fame rankings quickly.
Highlight Reel Moments: You know those highlights you watch while running on the treadmill to amp yourself up? The more of those a player has, the better.
Big Game Chops: Big games are the heart and soul of college football. Delivering clutch plays in a big game is a huge resume builder.
Miscellaneous: A category that rewards intangibles. Read here if you want examples.
However, please note I developed this framework for ranking my favorite players, not for identifying the best players. Still, if we cherrypick a couple of these categories I think it can help us determine if a guy flew above his station. Today let's focus on Bushman's stats, highlight reel, and big game chops.
Stats
Bushman's career stat line is just OK. His headliner is that he's led BYU in receiving for three years and was expected to lead this season as well, which would have given him a 4-year claim to fame only Cody Hoffman possesses. But that's kind of like applauding Collin Sexton for leading the Cavaliers in points per game this season. I mean, someone has to get stats right? Put it this way. Over the last 40 years of BYU football, here's where Bushman's season-leading yardage totals rank: 40th, 39th, and 31st.
In terms of game to game performances Bushman has gone over 100 yards receiving only once in his whole career -- versus Boise last year -- and that required the aid of two trick plays. In exactly half of his games (18 of the 39 he's played) he's had two catches or less. In 22 of 39 games he's had less than 50 yards receiving. He averages three touchdowns per season; Luke Staley averaged 2.5 per game.
(Please note I'm not trying to besmirch Matt by comparing him to Luke Staley. I just like to take every moment I can to contextualize the absolute bonkers performance Luke gave us back in 2001. Thank you.)
Speaking of touchdowns, Matt's are weird. For a player with his size, agility, and hands I'd expect him to be a constant threat in the redzone, but he's only scored four times from within the 20-yard line. Also, of his nine touchdowns three came on trick plays (2 vs Boise, 1 vs Liberty) and a fourth came when the pass bounced off a Washington player's knee. I don't know if I should read into that or not, but it seems interesting that Bushman has only scored 5 touchdowns from normal plays where he beat his defender without the benefit of a gimmick.
In terms of turnovers he's handled the ball pretty well, only fumbling twice in 125 touches, which is better than Harline who fumbled 4 times on 121 touches, but lacks compared to Dennis Pitta who according to his athlete profile never lost a fumble in his BYU career? Is that true? Sheesh.
The upside for Bushman is that as BYU's offense has improved from "worst in modern history" in 2017 to "Hey we crossed midfield!" in 2018 to "respectable for a FBS team" in 2019, so has his performance. His stats don't stick out because he's operating in a construct that limits individual accomplishments, not to mention BYU's lack of weapons probably keep him double teamed on over half of career snaps.
Thus it's reasonable to assume that in a normal offense his 2019 numbers would represent the floor of his performance rather than the ceiling. So yeah his stats aren't what I dreamed of back in the summer of 2017, but I'm not sure if we can hold that against Bushman as a sign of underperforming.
Highlight Reel
Bushman doesn't have a lot of highlight reel plays, but what tight end does? Well, Pitta had the helmet-popping grab against CSU, Harline had the one-handed-tip-to-himself touchdown against Utah, Clay Brown had the hail mary, and Chad Lewis jumped over guys so actually I guess there have been a few. And yes I know that being flashy doesn't guarantee a player is good.
But getting back to it, Bushman has a superstar highlight and it's terrific.
Big Game Chops: Big games are the heart and soul of college football. Delivering clutch plays in a big game is a huge resume builder.
Miscellaneous: A category that rewards intangibles. Read here if you want examples.
However, please note I developed this framework for ranking my favorite players, not for identifying the best players. Still, if we cherrypick a couple of these categories I think it can help us determine if a guy flew above his station. Today let's focus on Bushman's stats, highlight reel, and big game chops.
Stats
Bushman's career stat line is just OK. His headliner is that he's led BYU in receiving for three years and was expected to lead this season as well, which would have given him a 4-year claim to fame only Cody Hoffman possesses. But that's kind of like applauding Collin Sexton for leading the Cavaliers in points per game this season. I mean, someone has to get stats right? Put it this way. Over the last 40 years of BYU football, here's where Bushman's season-leading yardage totals rank: 40th, 39th, and 31st.
In terms of game to game performances Bushman has gone over 100 yards receiving only once in his whole career -- versus Boise last year -- and that required the aid of two trick plays. In exactly half of his games (18 of the 39 he's played) he's had two catches or less. In 22 of 39 games he's had less than 50 yards receiving. He averages three touchdowns per season; Luke Staley averaged 2.5 per game.
(Please note I'm not trying to besmirch Matt by comparing him to Luke Staley. I just like to take every moment I can to contextualize the absolute bonkers performance Luke gave us back in 2001. Thank you.)
Speaking of touchdowns, Matt's are weird. For a player with his size, agility, and hands I'd expect him to be a constant threat in the redzone, but he's only scored four times from within the 20-yard line. Also, of his nine touchdowns three came on trick plays (2 vs Boise, 1 vs Liberty) and a fourth came when the pass bounced off a Washington player's knee. I don't know if I should read into that or not, but it seems interesting that Bushman has only scored 5 touchdowns from normal plays where he beat his defender without the benefit of a gimmick.
In terms of turnovers he's handled the ball pretty well, only fumbling twice in 125 touches, which is better than Harline who fumbled 4 times on 121 touches, but lacks compared to Dennis Pitta who according to his athlete profile never lost a fumble in his BYU career? Is that true? Sheesh.
The upside for Bushman is that as BYU's offense has improved from "worst in modern history" in 2017 to "Hey we crossed midfield!" in 2018 to "respectable for a FBS team" in 2019, so has his performance. His stats don't stick out because he's operating in a construct that limits individual accomplishments, not to mention BYU's lack of weapons probably keep him double teamed on over half of career snaps.
Thus it's reasonable to assume that in a normal offense his 2019 numbers would represent the floor of his performance rather than the ceiling. So yeah his stats aren't what I dreamed of back in the summer of 2017, but I'm not sure if we can hold that against Bushman as a sign of underperforming.
Highlight Reel
Bushman doesn't have a lot of highlight reel plays, but what tight end does? Well, Pitta had the helmet-popping grab against CSU, Harline had the one-handed-tip-to-himself touchdown against Utah, Clay Brown had the hail mary, and Chad Lewis jumped over guys so actually I guess there have been a few. And yes I know that being flashy doesn't guarantee a player is good.
But getting back to it, Bushman has a superstar highlight and it's terrific.
This is a preposterous catch, which much like Fred Warner's incredible pick-six against Boise in 2016, might fade from memory over time since it came in a devastating loss. But in this highlight Bushman displays all his talents: the superb ability to catch the ball (with one hand if needed), while being impeded by the defender, while straddling the sideline, while playing on the road in a pressure-packed game. Which speaking of big games ...
Big Game Chops
Bushman has been excellent in big games, which I define as games against ranked opponents, P5 opponents, non-P5 rivals (Boise and USU), and bowl games. For his career Bushman averages 3 catches and 44 yards per game. In big games he's catching the same amount of receptions, but he's averaging 77 yards on those three catches. That is superb! 77 yards a game may not stand out as historic at first glance, but over 13 games that's a 1,000 yard season we're talking about.
Of the five best statistical games of his career, three have come in huge matchups. His best performance came last year against #14 Boise State, where he posted 5 receptions, 101 yards, and two touchdowns. His third best game came against #17 Utah in 2018, where he delivered a 6 catch, 92 yard, one touchdown showing. (Unfortunately when the game was on the line our coaches decided we'd have a better chance giving the ball to our 6th string running back with vision problems rather than our star tight end who was having the game of his life but I've written that story before) The 5th best game of his career came against #21 Washington last year, where he recorded 6 grabs, 89 yards, and one touchdown.
In 2017 two of his three best games came against Utah and Boise; in 2018 his best game came against Utah and his second best came against USU; in 2019 four of his top five performances came against Boise, Utah, Washington, and Hawaii in the bowl game.
What else can we say - Bushman rises to the occasion.
Conclusion
Bushman's career is an interesting case. He's had some awesome moments but hasn't been the day-in, day-out wrecking ball that I hoped for. He's been extremely healthy until this last week, and has racked up some great longevity stats as a result, ranking 5th in career receptions by a BYU tight end with a real chance to have moved up to 2nd all-time this season. There was an outside chance he could've moved up to 2nd in career receiving yards by a tight end this year as well. That's meaningful stuff.
But is it weird that when I tried to think of Bushman's highlight reel plays, three moments came to mind and two of them were turnovers? I of course thought of the one-handed catch against Utah, but the other two that popped into my mind were the Boise State fumble ...
Big Game Chops
Bushman has been excellent in big games, which I define as games against ranked opponents, P5 opponents, non-P5 rivals (Boise and USU), and bowl games. For his career Bushman averages 3 catches and 44 yards per game. In big games he's catching the same amount of receptions, but he's averaging 77 yards on those three catches. That is superb! 77 yards a game may not stand out as historic at first glance, but over 13 games that's a 1,000 yard season we're talking about.
Of the five best statistical games of his career, three have come in huge matchups. His best performance came last year against #14 Boise State, where he posted 5 receptions, 101 yards, and two touchdowns. His third best game came against #17 Utah in 2018, where he delivered a 6 catch, 92 yard, one touchdown showing. (Unfortunately when the game was on the line our coaches decided we'd have a better chance giving the ball to our 6th string running back with vision problems rather than our star tight end who was having the game of his life but I've written that story before) The 5th best game of his career came against #21 Washington last year, where he recorded 6 grabs, 89 yards, and one touchdown.
In 2017 two of his three best games came against Utah and Boise; in 2018 his best game came against Utah and his second best came against USU; in 2019 four of his top five performances came against Boise, Utah, Washington, and Hawaii in the bowl game.
What else can we say - Bushman rises to the occasion.
Conclusion
Bushman's career is an interesting case. He's had some awesome moments but hasn't been the day-in, day-out wrecking ball that I hoped for. He's been extremely healthy until this last week, and has racked up some great longevity stats as a result, ranking 5th in career receptions by a BYU tight end with a real chance to have moved up to 2nd all-time this season. There was an outside chance he could've moved up to 2nd in career receiving yards by a tight end this year as well. That's meaningful stuff.
But is it weird that when I tried to think of Bushman's highlight reel plays, three moments came to mind and two of them were turnovers? I of course thought of the one-handed catch against Utah, but the other two that popped into my mind were the Boise State fumble ...
... and the UMass interception.
That UMass drop is particularly devastating. A catch there might save us from the most ignoble defeat in the history of LaVell Edwards Stadium.
As I continued to plumb YouTube for clips of Bushman, I was reminded of another nearly awesome play that wasn't.
As I continued to plumb YouTube for clips of Bushman, I was reminded of another nearly awesome play that wasn't.
Look, the UMass play and the play against Hansen in the Utah game are not easy catches - I get that. But they're catches I want my best player to make! If Bushman catches those balls, or if he doesn't fumble at Boise, suddenly he has three highlight reel moments instead of just one, but more importantly, maybe BYU has one or two more wins over the course of his career.
I love Matt Bushman. He committed to BYU and stuck with BYU despite one of the worst seasons in their modern history. He's such a fan favorite that he was taken in the second round of our fantasy draft! But through this stage of his career he has underwhelmed. Which brings us to the one point we haven't addressed in this rambling analysis. His career doesn't have to be over.
I love Bushman but I'm not sure if the NFL does. Pro Football Focus certainly doesn't. They graded him as the 52nd best tight end in college football last year, behind Utah's Brant Kuithe, USU's Caleb Repp, and another Ute in Hunter Thedford. Their site punished Bushman for his lack of blocking prowess -- they rank him the 202nd worst blocker out of 240 "starters" -- but even in receiving they only have him 21st overall. Pro Football Focus grades aren't the bible of the NFL draft, but they're a supposedly unbiased gauge of player contribution. Add in Bushman's age, and this injury, and maybe the NFL isn't going to give him the look he deserves.
To which I say, come back brother Bushman! Play one more year. The coaches wanted you on the field every single down, which would be good for the obvious reason (more chance to make an impact) and the less obvious (BYU was 10% more likely to pass last year when Bushman was on the field. Having him on the field every down would eliminate that free tip we've been giving defenses).
The chance to place your name in the BYU record books, to ravage college football with a veteran Zach Wilson at your side, is worth more than an undrafted free agent contract. Come back next year and prove me wrong, show us that your career exceeded even our lofty 2017 dreams. Come back and make a claim that you belong in the Brown, Hudson, Smith, Pitta, Harline conversation. And finally come back so I can once more traumatize the prudes in the BYU crowd by yelling out "Matt MANBUSH!!!" every time you catch the ball.
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