Week 9 PFF Curiosities - BYU vs ECU

-- Why does the BYU offense seem weird? Let's rattle off some possibilities. 

The Hall-to-Puka deep ball lost its magic

BYU has used Puka a ton this year and I've loved it. Considering he's been atop the leaderboard in PFF's elusive ratings all year, maybe they should be using him even more (something his brother suggested via tweet in one of the calmer twitter criticisms we saw last week). But one area his usage is down in 2022 versus 2021 is the deep ball. In '21 Puka caught 13 passes that were thrown 20 yards or more downfield. He was 20th in the country in receiving yards generated via deep passes. He was a winner on heavily contested catches, securing 8 of 11 such passes. 

This year all those numbers are down. Hall and Puka have connected on only four deep shots. Puka's yardage from deep balls is 173rd in the country. PFF shows Puka only having faced three deep contested catches all year (to his credit he's nabbed two of them). 

Designed QB runs are AWOL

In 2021 Jaren Hall had 260 yards rushing on designed running plays. This year that number is 73. I know on the surface that may not feel like a seismic variance, given it's a difference of 26 yards per game in 2021 versus 8 yards per game in 2022. But if those 18 extra yards create one or two more first downs a game ... I think it's meaningful. At a minimum, the lack of designed rushes makes our offense  easier for defenses to prepare for. 

The screen game is losing steam

Do you know how many yards we've gained on screen passes to our running backs and quasi-fullback Masen Wake this year? 23. That number was 192 last year. Again, we're not talking about massive yardage differences on a per game basis, but it's the little things we're missing that have made the offense look just a little off this season. Screens are an offensive line game, and the further we distance ourselves from the Grimes era, the more our line play seems to suffer. 

Short-yardage success is no longer guaranteed

I went through the play-by-plays on ESPN of every game for this season and 2021 to chart how BYU fared when rushing on 3rd and 4th downs with two yards or less to gain. In 2021 BYU was near-automatic: they converted 82% of runs in that situation (36 of 44). When they handed the ball off to Allgeier, forget about it. He converted 22 of 24 attempts; or in other words he was as likely to convert a critical down as Steph Curry is to make a free throw. And just when I think I've ran out of amazing things to say about Allgeier on this blog ...

Alas, 2022 has not been so kind. Overall BYU is 11 for 23 (48%)11. This improves ever so slightly to 11 for 22 if we throw out the odd 4th and 1 against Arkansas where BYU supposedly was never meant to snap the ball. on short-yardage runs this year. Going from 82% to 48% ... does that even qualify for the term drop off? Should we call that a plummet? A cratering? The football version of the historic Black Thursday market crash?

Poor Christopher Brooks has gotten nowhere on these attempts, succeeding on only 2 of 6. Katoa has been a little better (3 for 5) I guess. I wonder if we see Masen Wake get a carry in one of these last few games. 

Has BYU gone smallball?

Speaking of big boys like Masen Wake, here's something interesting. In 2021 BYU's top three tight ends combined for about 107 snaps per game (Rex got 51, Wake 35, and Holker 21). This year BYU's top three tight ends combine for about 81 snaps a game (Rex 47, Wake 22, and Erickson 12). Why is BYU using their big guys less often this year?

There could be a few things happening here. Maybe BYU has used fewer running game packages because they've trailed in more games this season. Maybe there have simply been fewer snaps on offense to go around in general. Or maybe BYU has taken their big bodies off the field to make space for the abundance of receiving weapons. Afterall, how often does BYU have five legitimate wide receiver options?  (Puka, Romney, Roberts, Epps, and Hill). 

I don't know enough to say BYU should or shouldn't be using their tight ends more, but I do find it a curiosity. Especially given the prior paragraph about failing in short-yardage downs. 

Enough about the offense, what about the defense?

How about we start with a joke? In 2022 BYU has hurried the opposing quarterback 54 times, hit him 22 times, and sacked him 9 times. Add that together and BYU has pressured the quarterback 85 times. 

In 2015, the last year of the Bronco regime, BYU pressured opposing quarterbacks 214 times. 

I didn't say it was a funny joke. 

Bronco was such an interesting coach. He had amazing success and equally insane philosophies. As I wrote many years ago, his main problem may have been that he wasn't from planet earth. Somehow I loved and appreciated everything he did for BYU while simultaneously not missing him for a single second once he left. 

Until the last three weeks. This defensive Chernobyl has been painful enough to make me long for the good average old days of Bronco's later era.

Are there any more defensive stats that could make us feel sad?

I wrote tons last year about Kaleb Hayes who looked to be on a superstar track. He's been less effective this year. One possible reason? He's better in man defense than zone ... and unfortunately his defensive coordinator has fallen in love with zone even more this season. Yes, I know, I didn't think it was possible either. In 2021 PFF shows 29% of Hayes' coverage snaps were in man defense. This year that's down all the way to 16%. 

If this theory is true it's a shame BYU is using him as a zone defender. Per PFF Hayes has allowed 2 completions on 6 targets in man defense this year. He's allowed 14 of 17 in zone.22. I know, I know, comparing targets in zone vs man isn't exactly a perfect comparison, especially with sample sizes and everything. But still.  

Overall BYU is playing a lot more zone this year than last. Per PFF the six most used defensive backs from the '21 season played 32% of their snaps in man. In 2022 that number is down to 21%. 

In perhaps a related note, 3 of the top-6 most used defensive backs from '21 are (mostly) gone in '22 (Malik Moore, Chaz Ah You, and Isaiah Herron). Looks like the coaches may not trust the replacements as much.33. FWIW, in 2021 the 6-most used defensive backs in order were:
Malik Moore
D'Angelo Mandell
Kaleb Hayes
Jakob Robinson
Chaz Ah You
Isaiah Herron.

In 2022 the top-6 are
Jeudy-Lally (new)
Robinson
Micah Harper (upgraded role)
Kaleb Hayes
Talan Alfrey (upgraded role)
and D'Angelo Mandell.