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December 23, 2021

PFF Curiosities - BYU vs UAB

-- A tough end to an amazing season


Hail Allgeier
 
I feel like all I do is write about Allgeier every week but what he's done this year has been so historic there's really no choice.

By this point we're familiar with the common Allgeier records for 2021: best BYU rushing season ever, 2nd best BYU touchdown season ever, national leader in rushing TDs, 4th nationally in rush yards.

Let's not forget he also joined the 1,800 scrimmage-yards-in-one-season club, which includes only three Cougars: Allgeier in 2021, Unga in 2007, and Luke Staley in 2001. That's a big deal!

Let's not forget he also set the single season iron-man record this year, with 304 touches (276 rushes, 28 receptions). Before this year the most any skill position player had handled the ball was Harvey's 288 touches in 2007. Allgeier is the first Cougar ever to deliver a 300+ touch workload. That's a big deal!

On the PFF stat front, he's fifth nationally in missed tackles forced with 81. Among RBs with at least 200 carries he ranks fourth nationally in PFFs elusivity score, a measure of missed tackles forced and yards generated after contact. Speaking of yards after contact, Allgeier is 2nd nationally with 1,143 yards, trailing only Kenneth Walker III. That's a big deal!

And finally, for the 100th time, let me spout into the internet that against Virginia Tyler set the school record for most scrimmage yards ever in a single game, with 291. That's a huge deal! Put it all together and no skill player in BYU history has had a better game than Allgeier; only two players have ever had more yards in a season; only one player has ever scored more touchdowns in a season; and nobody has been relied on as much in a season as he was this year.

I'll address Allgeier's position in the BYU running back pantheon at the end of this post, but sadly we have to hit the brakes and talk about UAB.


A rainy, dreary bowl game
Imagine going to a city you don't want to visit to play a team you don't care about while the two in-state rivals you thumped travel to scenic stadiums in sunny California to play opponents people have actually heard of. And then to make things worse your game takes place in a rainstorm. I can't think of a worse atmosphere for a game.11. Imagine if it could've snowed instead of rained. Snow games are so fun. The crowd throws snowballs, it looks amazing on tv, and players are transported to the playgrounds and backyards of their youth. It feels too stupid and fan-ish to say weather cost BYU a game or two this year ... but I think it may have.

But the atmosphere didn't bother DeWayne McBride. His performance against BYU was the 2nd best of his career. The only time he rushed for more yards or broke more tackles was against Louisiana Tech. He picked up 9 first downs against BYU -- a career high. He rushed 28 times -- a career high. His yards after contact were the second best of his career. His long run of 64 yards was 3 yards shy of his career high. 


How much of DeWayne's success should be blamed on BYU? 
It's kind of a mixed bag. BYU was a bit sloppy in the tackling department against UAB. For the regular season PFF has BYU missing 132 tackles on 754 attempts (meaning BYU missed a tackle once every 5.7 tackle tries). Against UAB BYU missed 16 tackles on 64 attempts (meaning BYU whiffed on a tackle once every 4 tries). That sucks and seems indicative of a team with low motivation or an inordinate number of backups playing starting roles. 

But also DeWayne is good! Tyler Allgeier created 76 missed tackles specifically on rushes this season, which tied him for 4th in the nation. One of the three people ahead of him is DeWayne with 77 missed tackles created. I'm not sure we should ding BYU for getting beat by a runner who was beating most of the teams he played. 

BYU even succeeded at slowing down DeWayne's bread and butter plays. During the regular season a whopping 44% of DeWayne's rushing attempts went straight up the middle (either to the immediate left or right shoulder of the center). Those runs averaged an absurd 8.1 yards per carry.22. For comparison Allgeier went up the middle on 32% of his runs this year and averaged 6.1 yards on those carries. 

For the bowl game, UAB ran DeWayne up the middle on only 25% of his runs, and those plays only yielded 5 yards per carry.33. Yeah that's still a lot, but better than 8 ypc. I'm not sure if UAB redirected DeWayne's runs because BYU's middle interior was slowing them, or just because they wanted to zig where they had zagged most of the season. But when UAB moved their run plays it wasn't a big success. UAB decided to try their luck on the edges more in the bowl game (increasing their runs to the left and right tackles from 22% of the time in the regular season to 36% of the time in the bowl game) but it yielded no improvement in yards per attempt. 

BYU looked horrific against the run on the last drive of the game when UAB drained the clock, but I think they actually did OK this game. Outside of the one 64-yard run BYU held DeWayne to 4.4 yards per carry. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry during the regular season. I know it's stupid to say "BYU did pretty good if you take away the worst play they had" but against a good runner like DeWayne I think holding him a couple yards below his average on 27 of 28 runs is not outrageously bad. 


But yes I'm still going to complain about the defense
Warning: this next section has nothing to do with PFF advanced stats. And it's long. If you don't want to look at pictures or get angry this early in the day I advise moving to the next section. 

I'm confused by BYU's defensive alignment on the final drive of the game. Let's look at how they lined up on each play. 

1st and 10. 3:36 remaining
The below photo is the first play of UAB's final drive of the game up 31 to 28.


It's first and 10. UAB's goal at this point in the game is to run out the clock. The two yellow arrows indicate the location of BYU's safeties. One is about 12 yards away from the line of scrimmage. The other is so far back he's not on the screen. I'm not a coach but this doesn't look to me like a defensive alignment designed to stuff the run. 

UAB hands the ball off and gains six yards on the play. The BYU safety who is off screen (yellow arrow below) doesn't even appear in the tv footage until the very end of the play. He was helping provide coverage on the UAB receiver and BYU corner (indicated by the white arrows). 


But why? Why was he instructed to play so deep?


2nd and 4. 3:03 remaining
On second and four BYU moves one of their safeties -- circled in yellow -- a bit closer to the line of scrimmage. The other safety -- yellow arrow -- is 14 yards away and drifts out of screen as the offense gets set.

I guess it's better than the two deep shell from the play before? But the result is bad. UAB runs for 16 yards and a first down.


1st and 10. 2:41 remaining
Now this is better! After getting gashed on two straight running plays BYU crowds the point of attack with six men (yellow box) and none of their secondary defenders are more than 6 yards away from the line of scrimmage. 

Alas it doesn't work. UAB runs for 15 and a first down.


First and 10. 2:00 remaining
This is another good run defense alignment. 


Six guys at the line. The four secondary defenders on screen are within five yards of the line of scrimmage. The 11th defender off screen is lined up against a WR with no safety help. BYU stuffs UAB for the first time and allows only 2 yards on the handoff. 


2nd and 8. 1:53 remaining
After enjoying a bit of success on the prior play, BYU drops their safety -- yellow circle -- 10 yards deep. 


UAB rushes for nine and a first down. 


1st and 10. 1:47 remaining
BYU lines up with a safety -- yellow circle -- 10 yards deep. 


BYU holds UAB to a 3-yard run.


2nd and 7. 1:41 remaining
BYU lines up with six at the line of scrimmage (yellow box). You might be thinking that's good enough to stop the run, but UAB counters with two extra tight ends to give them 7 blockers (white box). Numbers advantage UAB. BYU's two defenders circled in yellow are lined up behind the first down marker.

UAB rushes for 6 on the play. 


3rd and 1. 1:00 remaining. 
This is the game. Gain one yard and UAB wins. BYU lines up with six in the box. The problem is UAB counters with 7 on the line of scrimmage plus a fullback (white circle), giving them 8 total interior blockers. It gets worse when the QB keeps the ball and the running back to his right ends up becoming a 9th blocker. 


But here's my real problem. At the snap, the four BYU guys not on the line of scrimmage just chill. The screenshot below is right after the ball is hiked. The white circle indicates the UAB ball carrier. The four yellow circles are the BYU players who weren't on the line. 


See how the BYU players are in reactionary stances? None of them are attacking. They're waiting for something. Here's a screenshot a second later. 


At this point the UAB QB has hit the first down marker and those four defenders were never even in the play. 

Were they coached to sit back and protect against the runner bouncing it outside? That might make sense for two of the defenders, but what about the other two? Why were they not attacking? I don't get this play call at all. It's one yard for the game and BYU sent six rushers against UABs nine blockers, while letting four defenders just sit in zones and do nothing. It makes no sense. 

I understand there are tradeoffs in sports - bringing up safeties leaves you vulnerable to a pass. Sending 10 defenders crashing immediately into the line of scrimmage leaves you vulnerable if the runner gets past the first level. 

But at this point of the game BYU has to get a stop. That's it. It doesn't matter if UAB scores or breaks a big play. BYU has to force a field goal attempt. UAB meanwhile was trying to run out the clock, they were working against the wind, and their best player was a RB. You knew they would run, and even if you didn't you still have to gamble by sending more resources to shore up the run game. 

But instead BYU played conservative on most of the final downs. I don't get it. 


The blitzing era was fun while it lasted
Ok, you came here for some PFF stats you may not find elsewhere, right? My apologies for the long rant above. Sadly the advanced stats bring more somber news. BYU blitzed UAB six times, or 22% of Hopkins dropbacks. That's quite a far cry from the Utah game where BYU blitzed an ultra-aggressive 45% of the time. Maybe that's because the four players who played the most snaps against Utah -- Ah You, Herron, Wilgar, Pili -- all were out for this game. 


BYU misused Puka?
In the USC post I mentioned Puka was second in the country in receiving yards per route run (YRR). What this means is he was one of the most efficient receivers in the country for making plays relative to the time he spent on the field. Unfortunately Puka had a horrible bowl game. Part of this may have been that BYU changed up his role. 

In the regular season Puka lined up wide 80% of the time, and only 20% of the time in the slot. 
In the bowl game, Puka lined up wide only 45% of the time, and lined up in the slot 55% of the time. 

I understand the team needed to switch things up with usual slot master Neil Pau'u out. But that's a drastic change for Puka. I'm not sure if that contributed to an off game, but it probably didn't help. 


Speaking of weird deviations from the regular season ...
BYU's offensive staff relied on play-action passes a lot this year, using it on about 42% of their dropbacks. This makes sense -- when you have a back like Allgeier you should definitely be using it that much! And BYU really liked using it with Baylor Romney. In his regular season snaps he used play-action on 55% of his dropbacks. 

So it was a surprise to see that BYU used play-action only 38% of the time in the bowl game. Allgeier was running so effectively I thought we'd see that number climb much higher, especially when it's been such a comfort food for Baylor this year. 

Baylor was 7% more accurate this year on play-action passes versus traditional passes (75% vs 68%), and his yards per attempt were 4 yards higher on play-action passes than the alternative (12 vs 8). He didn't have a single pass this whole year from play-action that was deemed turnover worthy by PFF. 


BYU's short game showed signs of life!
Let's end this post with two positive notes. 

In 2020 only one team was better than BYU at turning passes behind the line of scrimmage into big gains. BYU averaged 8.4 yards every time they threw behind the line. Part of that was clever play design, some of it was receivers making plays, and some of it was probably inferior opponents. Unfortunately this year Jaren Hall was tied for 58th in the country averaging 5.5 yards per throw behind the line (and Romney was even worse at only 4 yards per attempt). 

But in the bowl game BYU deployed the short game excellently! Romney threw 7 passes behind the line of scrimmage and they turned into 78 yards, good for 11.1 yards per attempt. That would lead the nation if BYU kept it up for an entire year. And that number isn't just bolstered by Wake's big 29-yard play. Puka picked up 9 on one pass behind the line; Holker picked up 13; and Wake had 2 other catches go for 9 and 17. I'd love to see BYU creep back into the top 20 on throws behind the line in 2022. 


Allgeier's place in BYU history
Last spring I spent a ridiculous amount of time comparing Jamaal Williams, Luke Staley, and Harvey Unga across 23 different questions before ultimately declaring Harvey BYU's RB GOAT in a 10,000 word opus. I ranked Staley second and Jamaal third.

Allgeier has passed Jamaal Williams in my personal pantheon of RBs, no questions asked. Things become murkier when comparing Allgeier to Luke and Harvey. Tyler had more explosive running performances than Harvey -- Tyler has gone over 150 rushing yards four times and over 200 yards twice while Harvey only went over150 twice and never cracked 20044. For Tyler: 218 vs USU, 191 vs WSU, 266 vs Virginia, and 192 vs UAB. For Harvey: 177 vs UNLV, 161 vs SDSU. --  but once you add in receiving yards Harvey went over 150 yards 9 times. 

Receiving is the great differentiator for me. At a school like BYU where passing is the origin story, the brand, and the entire reason for existence I give extra value to runners who also receive. 

Harvey and Luke were elite receiving backs to go along with their extraordinary running prowess. They knew how and when to stop blocking and find open spaces. And I'm not just talking short dumpoffs. These guys would routinely go deep down the field. 

Allgeier has been reliable in the passing game, but not dynamic. According to PFF he has never caught a pass that was thrown more than 10 yards in the air in his whole career. Maybe that's purely schematic and I shouldn't judge Allgeier on that fact. But it's something. 

Consider it from a Madden rankings perspective. Tyler is probably something like a 97 in running and an 82 in receiving. Meanwhile Harvey is probably a 94 in running and a 90 in receiving. Which back do you prefer? Gun to my head I probably stick with Harvey, but Allgeier has done so freaking much this year I have no choice but to visit this in extreme detail in a future day.

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