Editor's note: This is my 300th blog post! Holy smokes! I've been at this game for 14 years now and I couldn't be prouder. I'm not sure if I should be more embarrassed of this accomplishment or the crossword I finished a couple weeks ago.
Who is getting the ball out faster ... and does it mean anything?
Let me lead off by saying I'm not interested in quarterback controversies. Jaren is the starter and until things go off the rails I'm happy keeping it that way. But Baylor has now played enough games, and played well enough that I'm willing to do some contrast and compare. You know, for strictly academic purposes of course.
One thing the Baylor supporters have always propped up as his best skill is his quick decision making and ability to deliver the ball to the right spot. Shall we put this belief to the numbers test? PFF calculates the average time a quarterback takes between receiving the snap and throwing the ball. They further break it down between average seconds to throw when kept clean versus when under pressure. Here's how Jaren and Baylor compare (and I threw Zach's 2020 numbers in as a reference point for fun. Note that the Jaren and Baylor stats used throughout this whole post are from their total career, not just this season).
The fans are right! Baylor has been quicker at getting the ball out, whether when in a safe pocket or when under duress. Isn't it fun when the numbers support the eye test? But does it mean anything?
On one hand a quicker delivery might suggest a quarterback who is reading the defense faster, or who knows how to execute the play design immediately. On the other hand a quicker delivery could suggest a quarterback who is throwing only safe, short throws. A longer time to throw could be the result of a quarterback who is comfortable navigating the pocket and creating time with his movement -- an idea supported in our comparison where we see the most athletic and maneuverable of the three (Jaren) is holding the ball the most.
Frankly ... I'm not sure what it all means. And honestly it's entirely possible that Jaren's getting the ball out about as fast as Baylor, it's just that the plays where he scrambles for 7 seconds are throwing his average time to throw numbers out of balance. But I do find it all curious, which wouldn't you know it is the very name of this blog series.
But is Baylor throwing short then?
The first theory that came to mind when I saw Baylor's speedy time to throw was that he's probably throwing the ball short on very prescriptive play designs. Maybe there's something to that? When looking at the average depth of target (how far on average each quarterbacks pass attempts travel down the field) Jaren is throwing the ball farther, averaging a depth of 10.2 yards versus Baylor's 9.1 (for reference Zach's career average was 10.4 yards).
When you look at how frequently the two quarterbacks are bombing the ball down field (at least 20 yards or more) Jaren is attempting such throws on 16% of his dropbacks, versus 13% for Baylor. So yeah, the numbers suggest Jaren has been more aggressive than Baylor, but I'm not sure it's a major difference. The sample is small enough that a game with a few more bombs from Baylor would pretty much even things out.
And how about this from Baylor last game -- BYU had completed four deep balls (again, passes of 20 yards or more) in their first three games under Jaren. Against USF Baylor matched that with four deep balls of his own. He's not playing check-down ball.
Puka Watch
Is this going to become a weekly feature? I'm so hyped about Puka it might be lol. It helps that his first name is so fun to say. It also helps that he's barely on the field and yet a total menace to the defense. Are you bored of reading the following sentence yet? Once again, Pau'u, Romney, Rex, and Allgeier ran more passing routes than Puka. Once again, despite fewer reps, Puka led the team in targets (ok technically he was tied for the lead with Romney and Masen Wake of all people but the point is when the guy is on the field he's a magnet for the ball). He continues to lead the team in contested catches and average depth of target. When health and understanding of the scheme catch up with his talent, we are going to see receiving skills the likes of which we haven't had on the field since 2008 and you-know-who.
BYU is hammering the play-action pass
At the end of the season I sent good vibes into the internet with the hopes that BYU would continue to use play-action liberally in their offense. Under Detmer, this attempt at deception had decreased in usage all the way to 17% in 2016 and 11% in 2017. Grimes brought it back in 2018, using play-action on one out of three BYU passes, getting as high as a 37% usage rate in 2020.
BYU is hovering around that same rate, albeit a littler higher as Jaren has used play-action on 40% of his dropbacks, and Baylor has used it on ... wait what? ... 79% of his dropbacks??? That seems like it could be an error. If anyone knows one of the interns PFF has chained up in their basement counting fake handoffs please ask them to doublecheck this one.
But not as much as Utah State
Speaking of play-action, Utah State and Ole Miss are the only two teams in the country to use play-action on over 60% of their dropbacks. If BYU struggles to contain Utah State's running game, our defensive backs may be in for a challenging night.
Who Got Dem Snaps (OL Edition)
The good news coming into the season was that our starting O-line was expected to be good. The bad news coming into the season was our offensive line was not deep in terms of experience. Keanu Saleapaga didn't materialize and guys like Ethan Atagi and Brayden Keim had 31 and 21 career snaps to their name.
The best news is our offensive line has been healthy. Freeland, Barrington, and Empey lead the offense in snaps. I'm not sure they've missed a down. LaChance is right behind them at 5th in total snaps behind his amigos and Isaac Rex. I hesitate to write anything about health after my petition to the sporting gods that Wilgar and Pili "stay healthy" was swiftly answered with a season-ender for Pili. But this group needed to be solid and they've delivered. How long will the post-Grimes magic stay with the offensive line? I'm not sure.
Also, BYU has developed a little depth on the offensive line through four games. Whether due to injury or experimentation, the 5th spot on the offensive line has seen a lot of rotation between Joe Tukuafu and Connor Pay. Joe's been on the field for 144 snaps while Connor has played 121. Joe had 340 snaps coming into the season and Connor had 112. This is a long way of saying at the very least we have a sixth lineman who can step up if the worst happens.
(Of course after I write this Cougarboard has me worried about multiple linemen injuries. This blog may need to be decommissioned for player health purposes)
Isn't this post supposed to be about USF?
Whoops oh yeah. Two thoughts from this game. I know BYU was missing lots of defensive players, including an absolute star in Keenan Pili, but either way I fear this Timmy McLain fellow could be a problem next year. BYU opens the season at USF in '22, in a state notoriously challenging for BYU to get wins in. And McLain was solid in Provo under every situation. He was accurate when blitzed, he was accurate when the blitz resulted in pressure, and he was accurate when BYU dropped back.
The other oddity is USF in two contests against BYU has rushed for 413 yards, creating 14 missed tackles, and gaining 231 of their 413 yards after initial contact. That doesn't seem good. BYU has missed 42 tackles so far this year. Last year in 12 games BYU missed 105. And we're now without the services of our most sure tackler from 2020, Keenan Pili. That also doesn't seem good.
Collectively it all means BYU's given up quite a few rushing yards this year -- 199 against Utah, 179 against ASU -- and the surrendering of yards is the shadow that always hangs over a bend but don't break defense. One day the opposing offense isn't going to shoot itself in the foot, or the BYU defense isn't going to make the redzone interception, and then things become a little scary. Let's hope that day is not tonight.
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