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July 20, 2021

The Virtual BYU Dynasty - 2015 Part 1/2

-- Covering pre-season through Week 4

I'm continuing to write about Climps Hansen's quest to lead BYU ... to something great. Either a NCAA title, a promotion to the P12, or 30 straight wins over Utah. For a more thorough explanation of what this is, click here. Credit to Ricky O'Donnell for the idea. Remember all games are simulated. I just manage recruiting and coaching strategy.



The 2014 Season in Review

Man I must drive Tom Holmoe crazy. On the one hand I've been at BYU for three seasons and haven't made it to 9 wins once, let alone a top-25 finish. On the other hand, I've been dynamite against my rivals, winning 9 out of 10 games against the likes of Utah, USU, and Boise (and UNLV lol). On the other hand, each year I've ended the season with a worse record than the year before (8-5, to 7-6, to 5-7). On the other hand I've reeled in the two greatest recruiting classes in BYU history. On the other hand I've been crushed by Nevada in back-to-back seasons. On the other hand Nevada's QB finished 5th in the Heisman race and they finished last season ranked 13th so those losses don't look so bad in that light. On the other hand I'm 4-13 against Power 5 opponents. On the other hand, those P5 opponents include multiple top-ten teams, a National Champion, a defending National Champion, and two National Champion runners up. 

It's kind of like the Kalani conundrum in real life. On the one hand, BYU has been frankly bad with Kalani as coach (I wrote this sentence prior to the 2020 season ... not sure if I still stand by it or not. That Coastal game punting decision still irks me). On the other hand, Kalani has one of BYU's most impressive end-of-season wins in a long time (the 2019 win over USC), and one of our top-5 upsets ever (the 2018 win over Wisconsin). On the other hand he hasn't broke the streak against Utah. On the other hand he's rebuilt our offensive line to the point that we have two or three possible NFL draftees on our team. On the other hand he lost to UMass at home (and it wasn't even really close). 
 
In both mine and Kalani's cases, I think Tom should ride it out a little longer. And there's a major reason for hope -- Steve Latimer made the freshman All-American team! (So did a CB from Utah. I wonder if that's the guy who picked Latimer off three times in the rivalry game?)


As a reminder, here's how my wins from 2014 look at the end of the year, ranked from best to worst:
W over 10-3 UCF (lost in the AAC title game)
W over 7-5 Boise
W over 5-7 Utah
W over 4-8 USU in 3OT
W over 3-9 UNLV in 1OT

And my losses, ranked from best to worst. 
L to 12-1, 4th ranked Texas (lost in national championship)
L to 10-2, 13th ranked Nevada
L to 6-6 Nebraska
L to 6-6 Houston
L to 6-7 Cal
L to 5-7 Virginia
L to 6-7 UConn

The title game showcased undefeated Texas vs undefeated Notre Dame. This could be the second time in three years that I've played and lost to the national champ. But Notre Dame wins, so it's not meant to be. Way to go fellow independent! Our conference is so prestigious.
 
So anyway, I just made it to my year end review and let's just say my coaching security dropped from 73% ... to 39%. Wow. I told you it was important to win the minimum of six games. I'll be one of the top-5 most likely coaches to be fired headed into 2015. Minnesota knows this apparently, and offers me the defensive coordinator position. Meanwhile Washington State, FIU, Memphis, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky offer me the offensive coordinator position a day later. Huh. At least most of the schools know me for my offense I guess? 

Who do I lose to graduation? Brandon Johnson, the 92-rated center, and Billy Butler, the 90-rated WR are my two A-class players who are gonzo. I'm losing some good depth below them. The left side of our defensive line, two of our core linebackers, and of course all three of our starting cornerbacks depart. I'm pleased to see no transfer requests or early NFL departures. I'm worried my team is going to be really young next year. 

Ooof! I just noticed our team prestige dropped from three stars to two. I can accept personal hits in job security but when I'm letting the program down ... well that's a different story. 

Meanwhile Billy Butler is drafted by the Saints in the sixth round! Enjoy catching those passes from Brees and Taysom good sir. 


Signing Day

As we approach signing day my recruiting class is ranked 62nd in the country. I'm here to let folks know that won't stand. Not only do I plan to close on a number of high ranking recruits, but last year I stole Kevin Mason in the pre-signing day stage by pure luck and charismatic magic. I hope to see if I can pull off something like that again this year. 

And indeed Climps the Closer delivers early and often in the weeks leading up to signing day. Jon Moss, one of our top two targets, the 79-rated DE out of my hometown of Riverton, faxes in his letter of intent. So does another 79-rated DE out of Texas, Brian Harris. So does another local DE prospect out of Kearns, George Wheeler, rated 76! Going back to the surprise signing of Kevin Mason last year, my last four DE signees have been rated 76, 78, 79, and 79. That is some power on the edge, though I assume I may have to ask one or two of these guys to switch positions to shore up my weak defensive interior. I get three CBs to replace the departing seniors but they're all of the middling variety.

I get one surprise on signing day, a commit from a 4-star, 77-ranked LB named William Brown. Over Alabama he picks me! The temptation of early playing time was too much for him I guess.

Then ... out of nowhere, an all-time gut punch lands. This hurts more than losing to UConn or Virginia or any of the heartbreak from last year. The entire season I led for TJ Sampson, my first potential 5-star recruit, a wide receiver rated 79 out of The OC. He was supposed to visit Provo this week and he sends a text saying he committed to Auburn. Did the Tigers inundate him with anti-LDS propaganda? I am in literal shock. Perhaps I've learned a valuable lesson to not delay scheduling visits once they're available. 

I close with the 5th best recruiting class in the country: eleven 4-stars, thirteen 3-stars, and one 2-star. But I'm gonna be pissed about losing TJ for a long time. 


2015 Pre-season

Generally there is one or two guys who bump up by 5 or 6 in the offseason. I'm praying Latimer is one of these. Last year he bumped up 4 spots, this year ... up 5, and is now ranked 89 as a sophomore. YES. His upperclassmen years are going to be something. Albert Scott, the sophomore center out of Grantsville who jumped a ton last year is up to 90 now after another +5 this offseason. Sheesh. Iron sharpens iron. 

Overall I have tons of amazing training results. I'm not sure if this is the game taking pity on me, or my roster being filled with ho-hum dudes that need to level up, or if I just have a way young team that develops more due to being in the underclassmen years.  

I may not go as heavy on redshirts this year. For one, I promised people I wouldn't; for two, I'm recruiting so many numbers that I probably need to cycle guys through the program. 

BYU's original 2015 schedule started fun then got lame quick. In addition to the normal tweaks I make for scheduling rivalries or playing in promised home states, I've juiced up the November schedule. Below is the schedule with official teams on the left; the teams being replaced are listed on the right in parenthesis. 

Marshall (replaces East Carolina)
Utah (replaces Nebraska)
Boise State
UCLA
CSU (replaces UConn)
Rice (replaces Fresno State)
Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech (replaces Wagner)
UNLV (replaces SJSU)
Notre Dame (replaces Michigan)
USU
Tennessee (replaces Missouri)

Let's get to it!


Week 1 BYU vs Marshall
In the world of Indy schedules, BYU always needs to start fast. Without a couple of wins early the schedule is challenging enough to put you in an 0-4 spot, as we saw last year. Marshall is a C+ across the board, while I'm overall a B, with a B+ in offense and a B- in defense. No funny business ok fellas? We fly in, we grab the W, we fly home. 

And indeed that is the case. Victory, 31 to 24 over the Thundering Herd. Phew. 

My five best players are: 
Albert Scott, sophomore C (rated 90)
Steve Latimer, sophomore QB (rated 87)
Anthony Walker, senior TE (rated 86)
Brian McGrew, senior RG (rated 85)
Alex Sanders, senior WR (rated 85)

The stars deliver nicely to open the season. Once again we project to be above average on offense; alas only 1 of our top 10 players pledges allegiance to the defense (Tom Chapman, senior DE rated 84). My corners are young, rated in the 70s, and altogether a major spot of worry. In terms of silver linings, three of them have speed ratings above 90. We'll need them to develop quickly this year. 


Week 2 BYU vs Utah
The Holy War in Week 2 still seems weird all these years later. Utah is 0-1, but their opening loss was a competitive 17 to 10 affair against 3rd-ranked USC. We matchup pretty evenly as I begin the simulation and ...


Kyle Whittingham can't touch this! I've taken three straight over the Utes. At 2-0 we're primed for a huge showdown against Boise next week.

In recruiting I begin a new tradition: I scour the state of California for the first prospect from The OC. It's a guy named Damion Alfred. I scout him with high hopes. He is confirmed at a 60 rating. It looks like the curse of TJ Sampson has begun.

I have no position needs but I want to strengthen the offensive line this year. I've lost a lot of quality players in my first three seasons and need to fill the cupboard. 


Week 3 BYU at #22 Boise
Back-to-back national TV games! Boise upset #18 Auburn last week -- take that TJ!! -- and are sitting in the top-25 as a result. They outrank me (B+ to B) but I've outperformed them in every category except turnover margin. I don't know what to expect so let's see what happens. 



Oh sweet salamander. We've been pantsed on national TV. Or maybe we have to say it the Idaho way (de-pantsed) now that they're our overlords. Hopefully we can brush this one off before our home tilt versus UCLA. 

But I won't forget tonight's suffering anytime soon. Making a terrible night even more terrible  is a report from my training staff. Our prized recruit from the 2013 class, who also happens to be our best DT at a 83 rating, yes even Corey Ostrander, is out for 7 weeks with a foot stress fracture. Defensive tackle was not an area we could afford to lose a top player. It looks like we'll be starting two true freshman at the tackle spots from here on out: Jon Moss out of Riverton, and Sam Andrews out of Colorado.


Week 4 - BYU at UCLA
As in real life, UCLA has been struggling in our simulation. They come into this year 0-2, with losses to the Virginia Mendenhalls and Arizona. I like our chances. 

No national broadcast for this one, which is a shame because we roast the Bruins 37 to 17. It was all about the freshman in this one. Backup freshman TE Gary Lucas scored twice, and freshman RB Eric Gates scored as well. After last year's debacle being 3-1 feels amazing. 

An update from the recruiting front. For the first time in my coaching career I have a shot at an elite CB prospect. George Preston hails from Twin Falls and after a few hours of persuasion has me first on his list of offers. He's ranked 80 overall, which would make him my highest recruited prospect EVER if he closes the deal. 

Elsewhere Marcus Ford is a strong safety rated 78. Despite being a 4-star recruit his list of interested schools is somewhat pedestrian: myself, SMU, and Oregon State are battling for his services. If I sign him and George Preston my secondary would take a nice jump. 

I took a shot at a high rated fellow whose last name was Godfrey; I wanted him so I could rename him Gadfrey in a tribute to Jackie's grandma's favorite outburst. But it's for not, he's a Longhorn through and through.

I've also realized that the ideal quarterback succession plan calls for me to find my next guy right now. It seems crazy given Latimer is only in the beginning of his sophomore year, but if I sign a guy this year, redshirt him next, then have him on mop up duty while Latimer is a senior, he can start playing as a sophomore with two years in the program and some game experience. To the recruiting trail Batman!

 Til next time. 

PS:

An embarrassing admission. Remember all the way back in game three of my first year on the job? Coming off a couple of disheartening losses, I decided to redesign the playbook, and by redesign I mean I changed everything. I started with the Air Raid as my base, then cut down the shotgun formations from 10 to 4, and added some pistol, I-form, weak and strong-I, and some pro set. We won the next game in surprising fashion and I attributed it to my offensive genius. 

Well, turns out that while I did create a new playbook, I didn't in fact assign it to my team. I've been stuck with the same generic Air Raid that I had from day one. Coaching is hard.

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