BYU's defense has been weird under Ilaisa Tuiaki. His BYU career started with an absolute bang - in his first three games his defense held Arizona, Utah, and UCLA to a combined 46 points. That was an Arizona team led by Heisman hopeful Khalil Tate, a UCLA team team led by first pick hopeful Josh Rosen, and a Utah team led by Troy Williams who once completed 4 of 13 passes against Oregon State. (Wait what? How did we lose to that guy?)
The pendulum rocketed back in the opposite direction the next two games when West Virginia and Toledo combined to paste 88 on the BYU defense. And those five games pretty much tell the entire Tuiaki story: his defense either looks really good or really bad. Sometimes this dichotomy plays out as quickly as over the course of a single month. Take fall 2018 for example.
In weeks 2 and 3 of the '18 season BYU held Cal and Wisoncsin to 21 points a game. That's great! Two weeks later Washington and USU scored 35 and 38 against us despite laying off the gas in the third quarter. Not great!
Sometimes it even happens in the same game. In 2018 against Utah Tuiaki's defense pitched a first half shutout. Wonderful! In the second half Utah punted on their first drive then went touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, to end the game. Sucky!
It's roulette. One year Jordan Love scored 38 on us while sleepwalking; the next year Jordan Love only scored 14. One year Alex Hornibrook gave BYU a 40 point spanking; the next year BYU's defense held him to 21. During one stretch of the Houston game Clayton Tune completed 13 passes in a row with ease against BYU. Then in the 4th quarter BYU's defense adjusted and turned Tune into Mitch Trubisky.
I don't get it. But the purpose of today's blog isn't to get it. It's to explain why BYU fans will never trust Tuiaki, no matter what success he may have in the future. Even in a year like 2020 where BYU is only giving up 14 points a game. It may not be fair, but by my count there are five perceptions that we the fans will never get over.
I will list these in order from most forgivable to least forgivable.
#1 - Allowing First Drive TDs
One of the common knocks on Tuiaki is that his defense gets clowned on the first drive of every game. We win the toss; we defer; we're down seven to zero. Rinse and repeat.
#3 - The South Florida Debacle
Once upon a time BYU played against a redshirt freshman quarterback who had thrown for the following yardages prior to the BYU game:
Game 1: 22 yards
Game 2: 90 yards
Game 3: 217 yards (against a FCS opponent)
Game 4: 66 yards
Game 5: 157 yards
In four games against FBS opponents the quarterback was averaging 84 yards passing per game. Additionally, his coach said that he could barely grip the ball in the days leading up to the BYU game. In fact his coach said "(Our QB) looks like a middle schooler out there trying to throw the ball."
I don't know about you, but this seemed like promising news for BYU's defense.
Generally, when facing a horrific quarterback, you assume you might be able to pressure him into some turnovers. What's that you say? According to PFF BYU only blitzed him twice in the entire game? Ok. Fair enough I guess. Well at least when facing a bad quarterback you know you'll be able to devote more resources to stop the running game. Right?
How did BYU not stack the entire box against Southern Florida? How did they not attack the run? How did they not bring their safeties up when Southern Florida was running on 85% of their plays? How did they not adjust their game plan one bit in the fourth quarter, after getting mauled by the run game in the third?
This is one game I will never understand.
Verdict: Unforgiveable. BYU got beat by a quarterback who couldn't grip the ball and a running back who averaged 48 rushing yards per game for his career. Ye gods.
#4 - The Final Minute Prevent Defense against Cal
Oh man this one made me so mad in the moment! Hat tip to Cougarboarder Unibro for providing the photos used below to commemorate what we all saw live in the BYU-Cal game of 2018. To remind you of the setting: BYU was down three with 50 seconds left. They tried and failed to recover an onside kick but they had all three timeouts so if they could hold Cal to a 3-and-out they'd get the ball back with a slim chance of making something happen.
Cal's objective in this situation is to get a single first down while also forcing BYU to use their timeouts. Teams will almost always run the ball exclusively in this situation. Keep that in mind while I remind you of this other interesting fact: Cal had used two quarterbacks throughout the game (one good at passing, one good at running) and for this series they lined up with their running quarterback who at that point had passed 8 times and ran 13 times.
So what does BYU do? Do they crowd the line of scrimmage? Do they attempt to slow down the running attack?
Not really. On first and second down BYU comes out with a classic cover 2 look, with both safeties lined up 8 to 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage.
Our two defensive backs circled in yellow are a good 15 to 18 yards away from the quarterback when the ball was snapped. Why? What were they instructed to protect against? You might think, "well they probably crashed towards the play once they saw the QB was running." Nope.
Why in the world do we have a safety 15 yards away from the line of scrimmage on a 3rd and 3 when we know the other team is going to run the ball? Why is our defensive back giving an 8-yard cushion to his receiver on 3rd and 3 when we know the other team is going to run the ball? It makes no sense.
But as Unibro pointed out, it's not just our defensive backs that lined up in a crazy manner. On this third down Cal had an easy numbers advantage on the right side of their offensive line. They brought in an extra blocker on the right (yellow arrows), while BYU's extra rushers (white arrows) were lined up on the left side of the line.
At the snap the quarterback ran right and picked up the first down. Game over. But thank goodness our defensive backs kept us safe against the threat of a deep pass.
Verdict: Unforgiveable. I don't think I've ever seen a defense line up like this when the other team is trying to run out the clock with a quarterback who has only completed 6 passes in the game.
#5 - The Parade of Career Performances
What's the best pass completion percentage an opponent has ever had against BYU? I actually don't know - if someone has a list out there please send it to me. Because I think it's possible that the top 5 ALL came against teams coached by Tuiaki.
Alex Hornibrook went 18 for 19 against BYU in 2017. That 94.7% completion percentage was a Wisconsin school record until a week ago. Hornibrook would go on to accomplish ... nothing. He'd never have another game where he completed 80% of his passes let alone 90%. He'd end up transferring to Florida State with little success. He finished his career as a 61.7% passer. BYU blitzed him on 3 of his 20 dropbacks.
Jake Browning threw for 23 of 25 against BYU in 2018. His 92.1% accuracy was one completion shy of tying the NCAA record for completion percentage in a single game (minimum 20 attempts).11. Per PFF, Browning was actually 23 of 26, but one incompletion was a drop and the other was an intentional throwaway, making his true "accuracy" 24 of 25; equal to the NCAA record. Browning would be benched one month later. He was a career 64.6% passer. BYU blitzed him twice on 27 dropbacks.
Tyler Huntley completed 13 of 16 passes against BYU in 2019. Of the three incompletions, two were dropped and one was batted down at the line of scrimmage. Meaning effectively, Huntley was 15 of 15. He was a career 67.2% passer. BYU blitzed him 4 times on 20 dropbacks.
Jacob Eason threw for 24 of 29 against BYU in 2019, with one throwaway. He was a career 59.8% passer. BYU blitzed him twice on 29 dropbacks.
A LSU quarterback completed 15 of 18 passes against BYU in 2017 - with one drop and one throwaway, meaning effectively the quarterback was 16 of 17 in terms of accuracy against our defense. Was it Joe Burrow? No - It was Danny Etling. He was a 57.9% career passer.
Every year some no name quarterback puts up not just a career performance against us, but a record-setting performance against us. You never know when it's coming; you just know that it will.
Verdict: Unforgiveable
---
In conclusion, Let me reiterate I am NOT calling for Tuiaki to be fired. I've only done that once in my blogging days -- RIP Nick Howell -- and Tuiaki has been too good to consider that. His defenses have held Northern Illinois to 6, Navy to 3, Utah to 13, Arizona to 16, Boise State to 21, Mississipi State to 21 in double OT, Michigan State to 14, and UCLA to 17. Those are quality performances.
But either way, based on the above I don't think I'll ever be able to trust him.
The pendulum rocketed back in the opposite direction the next two games when West Virginia and Toledo combined to paste 88 on the BYU defense. And those five games pretty much tell the entire Tuiaki story: his defense either looks really good or really bad. Sometimes this dichotomy plays out as quickly as over the course of a single month. Take fall 2018 for example.
In weeks 2 and 3 of the '18 season BYU held Cal and Wisoncsin to 21 points a game. That's great! Two weeks later Washington and USU scored 35 and 38 against us despite laying off the gas in the third quarter. Not great!
Sometimes it even happens in the same game. In 2018 against Utah Tuiaki's defense pitched a first half shutout. Wonderful! In the second half Utah punted on their first drive then went touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, to end the game. Sucky!
It's roulette. One year Jordan Love scored 38 on us while sleepwalking; the next year Jordan Love only scored 14. One year Alex Hornibrook gave BYU a 40 point spanking; the next year BYU's defense held him to 21. During one stretch of the Houston game Clayton Tune completed 13 passes in a row with ease against BYU. Then in the 4th quarter BYU's defense adjusted and turned Tune into Mitch Trubisky.
I don't get it. But the purpose of today's blog isn't to get it. It's to explain why BYU fans will never trust Tuiaki, no matter what success he may have in the future. Even in a year like 2020 where BYU is only giving up 14 points a game. It may not be fair, but by my count there are five perceptions that we the fans will never get over.
I will list these in order from most forgivable to least forgivable.
#1 - Allowing First Drive TDs
One of the common knocks on Tuiaki is that his defense gets clowned on the first drive of every game. We win the toss; we defer; we're down seven to zero. Rinse and repeat.
I am one who has criticized Tuiaki for this! So I figured I better doublecheck the accuracy of this claim and I'm glad I did because Tuiaki's performance on first drives isn't actually as bad as it feels. Under Tuiaki’s tenure BYU’s played 58 games and has given up 20 scores on opening drives. Thirteen of those twenty have been opening drive touchdowns. That means BYU is giving up opening drive touchdowns once every 5 games (or once every five drives). Allowing a TD on 20% of drives seems pretty good to me.
So why does it feel like teams always score on us to start the game? Ah yes - because it's happening a lot more in recent games. In Tuiaki's first three seasons BYU only gave up seven opening drive touchdowns. In the last season and half they've already given up 6. It's not a great trend, but it's not something we fans should hold over Tuiaki's head. (Yet)
Verdict: Completely forgivable. In fact I should be asking for Tuiaki's forgiveness for accusing him of sucking at something that he doesn't really suck at.
#2 - The 2019 Game Plan against Utah
What did we know about Zach Moss coming into the 2019 season? That he was good at football? Check. That he was one of the top runners in the country? Check. That Kyle Whittingham would probably run him a lot? Check. That he was Utah's most dangerous weapon? Check. That Utah's new offensive coordinator really liked to run the ball behind heavy tight end sets? Check.
Knowing all this … how did BYU choose to defend Zach Moss in the 2019 rivalry game? Moss rushed 29 times in the game. I charted every run.
11 times he ran against a 3-man front. He gained 107 yards.
8 times he ran against a 4-man front. He gained 40 yards.
9 times he ran when we had 5 men crowding the line. He gained 45 yards.
1 time he ran when we had 6 men crowding the line. He lost 5 yards.
In other words, our most common defensive alignment against the best running back we faced last year was to drop 8 guys and leave 3 linemen to fend for themselves. Moss averaged 10 yards per carry when we deployed this soft taco shell defense; he averaged 5 yards per carry when we had a four or five men in the box; and he lost 5 yards the one time we brought an extra defender into the box. Huh.
By the way, how many times did Utah line up with one or two tight ends, providing a blocking advantage of six or seven offensive lineman versus our three or four defensive lineman? Per PFF Utah ran 68 plays against BYU in that game. Utah's three tight ends were on the field for a combined 69 run blocking snaps - meaning on almost every single rushing down they had at least one tight end committed to aiding the run game. And we responded by telling eight of our players to backpedal at the snap to defend the passing game.
Look - there may have been no stopping Zach Moss no matter what we did that night. He's a stud. But to defend him with a 3 or 4 man rush on the majority of his carries? To drop into a soft prevent defense against him 11 times? To focus our defensive attack on stopping Utah's non-existent deep passing attack instead of their Doak Walker candidate running back?
The only reason you play that defense against that team is if you're committed to losing and you're only goal is to make the score look competitive.
Verdict: Barely forgivable, only because it's likely Moss would have got his no matter what defense we sent against him.
So why does it feel like teams always score on us to start the game? Ah yes - because it's happening a lot more in recent games. In Tuiaki's first three seasons BYU only gave up seven opening drive touchdowns. In the last season and half they've already given up 6. It's not a great trend, but it's not something we fans should hold over Tuiaki's head. (Yet)
Verdict: Completely forgivable. In fact I should be asking for Tuiaki's forgiveness for accusing him of sucking at something that he doesn't really suck at.
#2 - The 2019 Game Plan against Utah
What did we know about Zach Moss coming into the 2019 season? That he was good at football? Check. That he was one of the top runners in the country? Check. That Kyle Whittingham would probably run him a lot? Check. That he was Utah's most dangerous weapon? Check. That Utah's new offensive coordinator really liked to run the ball behind heavy tight end sets? Check.
Knowing all this … how did BYU choose to defend Zach Moss in the 2019 rivalry game? Moss rushed 29 times in the game. I charted every run.
11 times he ran against a 3-man front. He gained 107 yards.
8 times he ran against a 4-man front. He gained 40 yards.
9 times he ran when we had 5 men crowding the line. He gained 45 yards.
1 time he ran when we had 6 men crowding the line. He lost 5 yards.
In other words, our most common defensive alignment against the best running back we faced last year was to drop 8 guys and leave 3 linemen to fend for themselves. Moss averaged 10 yards per carry when we deployed this soft taco shell defense; he averaged 5 yards per carry when we had a four or five men in the box; and he lost 5 yards the one time we brought an extra defender into the box. Huh.
By the way, how many times did Utah line up with one or two tight ends, providing a blocking advantage of six or seven offensive lineman versus our three or four defensive lineman? Per PFF Utah ran 68 plays against BYU in that game. Utah's three tight ends were on the field for a combined 69 run blocking snaps - meaning on almost every single rushing down they had at least one tight end committed to aiding the run game. And we responded by telling eight of our players to backpedal at the snap to defend the passing game.
Look - there may have been no stopping Zach Moss no matter what we did that night. He's a stud. But to defend him with a 3 or 4 man rush on the majority of his carries? To drop into a soft prevent defense against him 11 times? To focus our defensive attack on stopping Utah's non-existent deep passing attack instead of their Doak Walker candidate running back?
The only reason you play that defense against that team is if you're committed to losing and you're only goal is to make the score look competitive.
Verdict: Barely forgivable, only because it's likely Moss would have got his no matter what defense we sent against him.
#3 - The South Florida Debacle
Once upon a time BYU played against a redshirt freshman quarterback who had thrown for the following yardages prior to the BYU game:
Game 1: 22 yards
Game 2: 90 yards
Game 3: 217 yards (against a FCS opponent)
Game 4: 66 yards
Game 5: 157 yards
In four games against FBS opponents the quarterback was averaging 84 yards passing per game. Additionally, his coach said that he could barely grip the ball in the days leading up to the BYU game. In fact his coach said "(Our QB) looks like a middle schooler out there trying to throw the ball."
I don't know about you, but this seemed like promising news for BYU's defense.
Generally, when facing a horrific quarterback, you assume you might be able to pressure him into some turnovers. What's that you say? According to PFF BYU only blitzed him twice in the entire game? Ok. Fair enough I guess. Well at least when facing a bad quarterback you know you'll be able to devote more resources to stop the running game. Right?
RIGHT? RIGHHTTTTT??
Oh so wrong.
BYU got ran into the turf by a fellow named Jordan Cronkrite. On this day he transformed into Jordan Cronkowski and ran for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Cronkrite would play 44 games across his career. The only game he rushed for more yards than what he did against BYU came against UMass. In the fourth quarter alone THE CRONK ran 8 times for 69 yards (apply that across 4 quarters and you're looking at a 32 carry, 280 yard performance).
At one point in the second half Southern Florida had 2 drives that totaled 25 plays in which they passed the ball only 4 times. The other 21 plays were runs that went for 139 rushing yards. In the fourth quarter when BYU was desperate for a stop Southern Florida had a drive where they ran on 9 of 10 plays for 78 yards. They gashed us to death.
But how? How did this happen? Where were BYU's defenders?
Was BYU dropping guys into coverage trying to stop the quarterback who had a glove on his hand in in the middle of an 80 degree day? Who had on purpose completed 3 passes for 15 yards in the first half and on accident completed 1 pass for 39 yards?
Oh so wrong.
BYU got ran into the turf by a fellow named Jordan Cronkrite. On this day he transformed into Jordan Cronkowski and ran for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Cronkrite would play 44 games across his career. The only game he rushed for more yards than what he did against BYU came against UMass. In the fourth quarter alone THE CRONK ran 8 times for 69 yards (apply that across 4 quarters and you're looking at a 32 carry, 280 yard performance).
At one point in the second half Southern Florida had 2 drives that totaled 25 plays in which they passed the ball only 4 times. The other 21 plays were runs that went for 139 rushing yards. In the fourth quarter when BYU was desperate for a stop Southern Florida had a drive where they ran on 9 of 10 plays for 78 yards. They gashed us to death.
But how? How did this happen? Where were BYU's defenders?
Was BYU dropping guys into coverage trying to stop the quarterback who had a glove on his hand in in the middle of an 80 degree day? Who had on purpose completed 3 passes for 15 yards in the first half and on accident completed 1 pass for 39 yards?
How did BYU not stack the entire box against Southern Florida? How did they not attack the run? How did they not bring their safeties up when Southern Florida was running on 85% of their plays? How did they not adjust their game plan one bit in the fourth quarter, after getting mauled by the run game in the third?
This is one game I will never understand.
Verdict: Unforgiveable. BYU got beat by a quarterback who couldn't grip the ball and a running back who averaged 48 rushing yards per game for his career. Ye gods.
#4 - The Final Minute Prevent Defense against Cal
Oh man this one made me so mad in the moment! Hat tip to Cougarboarder Unibro for providing the photos used below to commemorate what we all saw live in the BYU-Cal game of 2018. To remind you of the setting: BYU was down three with 50 seconds left. They tried and failed to recover an onside kick but they had all three timeouts so if they could hold Cal to a 3-and-out they'd get the ball back with a slim chance of making something happen.
Cal's objective in this situation is to get a single first down while also forcing BYU to use their timeouts. Teams will almost always run the ball exclusively in this situation. Keep that in mind while I remind you of this other interesting fact: Cal had used two quarterbacks throughout the game (one good at passing, one good at running) and for this series they lined up with their running quarterback who at that point had passed 8 times and ran 13 times.
So what does BYU do? Do they crowd the line of scrimmage? Do they attempt to slow down the running attack?
Not really. On first and second down BYU comes out with a classic cover 2 look, with both safeties lined up 8 to 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage.
This strikes me as weird. Did BYU really think the key on these downs was to give their cornerbacks safety coverage? Either way Cal ran on both downs, gaining seven yards, and burning two of BYU's three timeouts. This brought up a third and three situation. Did anyone think Cal was going to pass on this down? I guess BYU did because look at this alignment.
Our two defensive backs circled in yellow are a good 15 to 18 yards away from the quarterback when the ball was snapped. Why? What were they instructed to protect against? You might think, "well they probably crashed towards the play once they saw the QB was running." Nope.
Why in the world do we have a safety 15 yards away from the line of scrimmage on a 3rd and 3 when we know the other team is going to run the ball? Why is our defensive back giving an 8-yard cushion to his receiver on 3rd and 3 when we know the other team is going to run the ball? It makes no sense.
But as Unibro pointed out, it's not just our defensive backs that lined up in a crazy manner. On this third down Cal had an easy numbers advantage on the right side of their offensive line. They brought in an extra blocker on the right (yellow arrows), while BYU's extra rushers (white arrows) were lined up on the left side of the line.
At the snap the quarterback ran right and picked up the first down. Game over. But thank goodness our defensive backs kept us safe against the threat of a deep pass.
Verdict: Unforgiveable. I don't think I've ever seen a defense line up like this when the other team is trying to run out the clock with a quarterback who has only completed 6 passes in the game.
#5 - The Parade of Career Performances
What's the best pass completion percentage an opponent has ever had against BYU? I actually don't know - if someone has a list out there please send it to me. Because I think it's possible that the top 5 ALL came against teams coached by Tuiaki.
Alex Hornibrook went 18 for 19 against BYU in 2017. That 94.7% completion percentage was a Wisconsin school record until a week ago. Hornibrook would go on to accomplish ... nothing. He'd never have another game where he completed 80% of his passes let alone 90%. He'd end up transferring to Florida State with little success. He finished his career as a 61.7% passer. BYU blitzed him on 3 of his 20 dropbacks.
Jake Browning threw for 23 of 25 against BYU in 2018. His 92.1% accuracy was one completion shy of tying the NCAA record for completion percentage in a single game (minimum 20 attempts).11. Per PFF, Browning was actually 23 of 26, but one incompletion was a drop and the other was an intentional throwaway, making his true "accuracy" 24 of 25; equal to the NCAA record. Browning would be benched one month later. He was a career 64.6% passer. BYU blitzed him twice on 27 dropbacks.
Tyler Huntley completed 13 of 16 passes against BYU in 2019. Of the three incompletions, two were dropped and one was batted down at the line of scrimmage. Meaning effectively, Huntley was 15 of 15. He was a career 67.2% passer. BYU blitzed him 4 times on 20 dropbacks.
Jacob Eason threw for 24 of 29 against BYU in 2019, with one throwaway. He was a career 59.8% passer. BYU blitzed him twice on 29 dropbacks.
A LSU quarterback completed 15 of 18 passes against BYU in 2017 - with one drop and one throwaway, meaning effectively the quarterback was 16 of 17 in terms of accuracy against our defense. Was it Joe Burrow? No - It was Danny Etling. He was a 57.9% career passer.
Every year some no name quarterback puts up not just a career performance against us, but a record-setting performance against us. You never know when it's coming; you just know that it will.
Verdict: Unforgiveable
---
In conclusion, Let me reiterate I am NOT calling for Tuiaki to be fired. I've only done that once in my blogging days -- RIP Nick Howell -- and Tuiaki has been too good to consider that. His defenses have held Northern Illinois to 6, Navy to 3, Utah to 13, Arizona to 16, Boise State to 21, Mississipi State to 21 in double OT, Michigan State to 14, and UCLA to 17. Those are quality performances.
His oft-mocked drop eight approach is fine against teams with clueless coaches (see USC last year) and a death sentence against coaches with a brain (see Washington 7 days later) but honestly if I were a BYU coach who faced superior athletes on a week-to-week basis I'd probably be dropping eight a lot too. His stubborn reliance on it is probably more annoying than his actual use of it -- it smells a lot like Robert Anae's vendetta against fans and media -- but whatever. All in all I think Tuiaki's done an above average to good job. You could even argue his BYU career has been better than his offensive counterpart Jeff Grimes,22. I wouldn't make this argument - I'm all in on Grimes. But my point is you could. who seems to come under a lot less criticism.
But either way, based on the above I don't think I'll ever be able to trust him.
No comments:
Post a Comment