-- Looking at the PFF stats after BYU took down the Mailman
If Zach was heating up against Navy ... and if he was on fire against Troy ... does that mean he was doing boomshakalakas against Louisiana Tech? Yeah pretty much.
Zach can't do wrong right now. His adjusted completion percentage is 90%. I repeat, 90%! On deep throws (those travelling over 20 yards in the air) he's completed 10 out of 12 attempts, with one of the two incompletions being a drop. That means on an adjusted basis he's completing 92% of his deep passes. There was only one player in the NBA this season who shot free throws at a 92% rate or better. Putting it another way, Wilson is more likely to complete a 20+ yard pass this season than almost every single player in the NBA is to make a free throw.
Putting it YET another way. Wilson has completed 10 deep passes through three games. As a team BYU completed 12 in 2016. Wilson will probably bypass that on Saturday.
A Diversified Passing Attack
Among the many praises one could heap on our offense so far this season, I must point out BYU is attacking the field with superb balance. BYU has thrown 29% of their passes to the left side of the field, 39% to the middle, and 32% to the right. For comparison,11. This does not include throws behind or at the line of scrimmage. since 2014 BYU averages 21% of their passes to the left side of the field, 55% to the middle, and 23% to the right. I'm not sure if this ability to spread the ball is by design of the offensive coaching staff, or a newly developed skill of Zach's, but right now defenses don't know where the ball is going to go. And that is superb.
Oh and by the way, remember how Zach is on fire? He's especially incendiary on throws to the left side of the field, where he's completed 94% of his 17 throws. Every time he looks to the left I'm expecting an automatic completion.
How's Khyiris Tonga's Conditioning this Year?
The beast who hails from my alma mater has been an unstoppable force for the BYU defense since the day he arrived on campus. I love Tonga. But the one knock thrown his way has surrounded his fitness, namely that he's an asset but one that huffs and puffs his way off the field too frequently. Tonga's snap count history would suggest he struggled with staying on the field early in his career, but has improved every season since.
Tonga's total snaps in 2017: 325 (36%)
Tonga's total snaps in 2018: 440 (49%)
Tonga's total snaps in 2019: 513 (56%)
How's he doing in 2020? Tonga's played 55% of available snaps this year, in line with the availability he showed last season. But if I had to guess I'd bet Tonga has taken yet another leap in 2020 - it's just that with blowouts being BYU's calling card through the first three weeks there's no need to use him as much. Instead Gabe Summers and Earl Mariner are getting some developmental reps.
Also note that despite playing only 55% of available snaps, Tonga is second on the team with four stops on defense. Stops are tackles that create a "failure" for the offense. Meaning if you make a tackle on first down and the offense gets less than 45% of the way to a first down, or less than 60% of the remaining yardage on 2nd down, or if you stop the offense from getting a first down on third or fourth down, you've "stopped" the offense. That's a long way of saying Tonga has made quite an impact despite having been absent for 45% of our defensive snaps.
A Shoutout to Neil Pau'u
I have been harsh on Neil Pau'u, but through three games he's third on the team in targets, receptions, and yards. And six of his nine catches have created first downs. If he were to keep up his current rate through a regular 13-game season, he'd end up with 39 catches and 541 receiving yards. That's not bad!
If I were Las Vegas I'd have put the over/under for his season totals at 22 catches and 375 yards - so certainly he's exceeding my expectations. But I still would rather see his reps go to Cosper, Jackson, Epps, or Hill.
Katoa's Diversity
I was surprised to see that Katoa has lined up as a receiver five times this season (twice out wide, three times in the slot). More of this please! Kyle Shanahan showed us quite nicely how a multi-positional running back could confound a defense during the 2016 Atlanta Falcons tour de force season.
More Zach Wilson
One thing I'm extremely pleased to see is the number of easy passes BYU has built into their playbook this season. Take for example passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. 16% of Zach's passes fall into this category -- easy tosses that allow your pass-catcher to make a play. Since 2014 only 10% of BYU's passes have come at or behind the line of scrimmage. During Zach's 2018 and 2019 season only 11% of his passes came in this zone.
These passes are like layups in basketball. They're easy, they put you in a rhythm, and they build confidence for more challenging attacks. Increasing the allocation of throws to this area can only mean good things for the BYU offense.
Additionally, BYU is making things easier on Wilson by giving him a healthy dose of play-action opportunities. Last year during the weird RPO obsession, BYU ran play-action on only 27% of Zach's dropbacks.
BYU film review.
— Hans Olsen (@975Hans) October 6, 2020
In 2019 BYU's offense had PLENTY of Run Pass Option calls. I'm not a fan of the RPO & was critical of it at times.
2020 I'm seeing VERY little RPO. These are called plays with line, RB & receiving responsibility. They're executing at a very high level. I like it!
In 2018 BYU ran play-action on 34% of Zach's dropbacks. This year Grimes has called for play-action on 41% of Zach's dropbacks. I expect that number might come down as the season unfolds, but for now it's been a useful weapon.
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