I like looking at snap counts and one early trend suggests Jay Hill was serious when he said the hockey substitutions were a thing of the past. Over the last three seasons I checked how many defensive players got 8 snaps or more in the first three games of the season. Why 8 snaps or more? I figure that's enough snaps to suggest you played a series or two, and were therefore a meaningful part of the game.
In 2021 we averaged 22 players on defense getting at least 8 snaps a game.
In 2022 we averaged 24.
In 2023 we average 19.
So far Hill is handing out less snaps to the backups. And his 19 player-a-game average is inflated by the SUU game, where we sent out a bunch of second stringers in the blowout stage.
The thing that's interesting to me is ... I'm not sure which approach is better? I know that sounds stupid -- obviously keeping your best guys on the field more is the best bet to win. But keeping your best guys on the field does present some potential downsides. More playing time means more chances to get hurt, and more time for starters means less time for backups, which means we aren't developing depth as well as we were in the past. I understand for one game you'd keep your best players on as long as possible, no questions asked. But for a season-long dance I'm less sure.
I think it's a balancing act. We know injuries will happen, so giving snaps to our backups to keep them engaged and somewhat experienced is a good thing. But at the same time imagine if we took Batty off the field against Arkansas. That could have cost us the game. My conclusion: being a coach isn't easy.
Is BYU Playing More Man Defense?
According to PFF, yeah a teeeeny bit. Last year against Arkansas our corners were isolated 26% of the game, compared to 30% of the game this year. Overall BYU's top corners last year were in man about 23% of the time, compared to 24% this year. Both marks trail the national averages of 27% in 2022 and 29% thus far through 2023.
Night and Day Tackling Differences
Last year against Arkansas we attempted 84 tackles and missed 28 times. A little bit of math tells us we were missing on one out of three tackle attempts. Woof.
This year against Arkansas we attempted 77 tackles and missed only 8 times. In other words we missed on one out 10 tackle attempts.
What happened? How did we get so much better? Well Jay Hill for one. But for two ... it's early in the season and our guys might still be fresh. Let me explain with some numbers.
Last year against Arkansas we attempted 84 tackles and missed 28 times. A little bit of math tells us we were missing on one out of three tackle attempts. Woof.
This year against Arkansas we attempted 77 tackles and missed only 8 times. In other words we missed on one out 10 tackle attempts.
What happened? How did we get so much better? Well Jay Hill for one. But for two ... it's early in the season and our guys might still be fresh. Let me explain with some numbers.
In the early part of 2022 we actually looked like tackling masters as well - in the extra innings showdown against Baylor we only missed 5 times(!) on 81 tackle attempts. That's awesome! Yet 5 weeks later against Arkansas we looked like we belonged in FCS. So what happened between week 2 and week 7 of last year? Injuries? The Holker bad locker room vibes? Lack of belief in the Tuiaki system?
Maybe it was fatigue, which takes me back to the prior section about playing time and snap counts. Will our tackling go downhill throughout the year as our guys rack up the hits and bruises? Will that happen quicker since our key players are monopolizing playing time?
I don't know! Remember this blog is called PFF Curiosities, not PFF answers.
Maybe it was fatigue, which takes me back to the prior section about playing time and snap counts. Will our tackling go downhill throughout the year as our guys rack up the hits and bruises? Will that happen quicker since our key players are monopolizing playing time?
I don't know! Remember this blog is called PFF Curiosities, not PFF answers.
Not All Pressures Are Created Equal (volume 2,310)
Last year we pressured Jefferson on 25% of his dropbacks. This year we pressured him on about 27% of his dropbacks. Pretty comparable, right? But last year when under pressure he completed 6 passes for 117 yards and 2 TDs and didn't commit a single turnover worthy play. This year when under pressure he completed zero passes and committed four turnover worthy plays.
Keanu Hill - Where Art Thou?
So did Keanu hit on Kedon's girlfriend or something? Cause this guy is not getting the ball. Hill has ran the 4th most routes on the team (trailing Rex, Roberts, and Lassiter) and yet he has 2 catches on the season. That's tied for 8th on the team. The production isn't matching the opportunity.
Could this be an alignment issue? Hill is used to lining up wide. From 2021 to 2022 82% of his snaps came in a wide alignment, meaning he was in the slot only 18% of the time. This year he's been deployed in the slot 34%. Is that messing with his mojo?
In general, it looks like BYU is moving receivers all over the field, which I think I like (even if it is possibly messing with Hill). For example, in 2021 we had 4 receivers who lined up wide over 70% of the time. In 2022 we had 2 receivers who lined up wide over 70% of the time. So far this year we have one. Our two best receivers so far (Roberts and Lassiter) have been about 50/50 in terms of wide/slot deployment.11. That's a pretty big change for Roberts who lined up in the slot only 27% of the time last year.
Deep Passing Game - Where Art Thou?
What's more likely to succeed? A Kedon Slovis pass of 20 yards or more? Or a Russell Westbrook three-pointer?
Sadly it's the Westbrick long-bomb, which has gone in at a 30% career clip22. Naturally he shoots threes at 38% against the Jazz because the sporting gods hate me. compared to 25% of Kedon's long passes being completed (at BYU). 25% puts Slovis in a tie for 105th worst in the country.
It's still early in the season, but it's a troubling sign. I expect the connection between Slovis and the receiving crew will improve, but right now they are way behind where BYU was with Hall (who succeeded on about 44% of his deep throws) and lightyears behind where BYU was with 2020 Zach (who hit on an absurd 63% of his deep passes, good for 2nd in the whole country).
Might I Interest You In Another Offensive Deficiency?
One thing that is hurting our offense compared to prior years is that we aren't bowling people over in our rushing attack. Allgeier in 2021 was of course the gold standard, averaging a ludicrous 4.16 yards after contact per rushing attempt. He gained 1,143 of his yards that season after contact, which was good for 2nd in the whole country.
So did Keanu hit on Kedon's girlfriend or something? Cause this guy is not getting the ball. Hill has ran the 4th most routes on the team (trailing Rex, Roberts, and Lassiter) and yet he has 2 catches on the season. That's tied for 8th on the team. The production isn't matching the opportunity.
Could this be an alignment issue? Hill is used to lining up wide. From 2021 to 2022 82% of his snaps came in a wide alignment, meaning he was in the slot only 18% of the time. This year he's been deployed in the slot 34%. Is that messing with his mojo?
In general, it looks like BYU is moving receivers all over the field, which I think I like (even if it is possibly messing with Hill). For example, in 2021 we had 4 receivers who lined up wide over 70% of the time. In 2022 we had 2 receivers who lined up wide over 70% of the time. So far this year we have one. Our two best receivers so far (Roberts and Lassiter) have been about 50/50 in terms of wide/slot deployment.11. That's a pretty big change for Roberts who lined up in the slot only 27% of the time last year.
Deep Passing Game - Where Art Thou?
What's more likely to succeed? A Kedon Slovis pass of 20 yards or more? Or a Russell Westbrook three-pointer?
Sadly it's the Westbrick long-bomb, which has gone in at a 30% career clip22. Naturally he shoots threes at 38% against the Jazz because the sporting gods hate me. compared to 25% of Kedon's long passes being completed (at BYU). 25% puts Slovis in a tie for 105th worst in the country.
It's still early in the season, but it's a troubling sign. I expect the connection between Slovis and the receiving crew will improve, but right now they are way behind where BYU was with Hall (who succeeded on about 44% of his deep throws) and lightyears behind where BYU was with 2020 Zach (who hit on an absurd 63% of his deep passes, good for 2nd in the whole country).
Might I Interest You In Another Offensive Deficiency?
One thing that is hurting our offense compared to prior years is that we aren't bowling people over in our rushing attack. Allgeier in 2021 was of course the gold standard, averaging a ludicrous 4.16 yards after contact per rushing attempt. He gained 1,143 of his yards that season after contact, which was good for 2nd in the whole country.
Chris Brooks in 2022 wasn't Allgeier but he wasn't bad either, averaging 3.88 yards after contact. This year our best bruiser has been the rookie LJ Martin, who is only averaging 2.52 yards after contact. So while our offensive line isn't blocking as well as they have in the past, our runners aren't doing them as many favors either.
Taken as an entire rushing attack, BYU averaged 3.7 yards after contact in 2021, 3.5 yards in 2022, and only 2.2 yards this year. And we haven't even gotten to the meat of our schedule yet.
Taken as an entire rushing attack, BYU averaged 3.7 yards after contact in 2021, 3.5 yards in 2022, and only 2.2 yards this year. And we haven't even gotten to the meat of our schedule yet.
We Did Another Jet Sweep to the Right
Last week we learned that BYU has a bad tendency to run their jet sweeps primarily to the right. They did it again against Arkansas. I feel a duty to mention this every week until we go left.
We've had some ridiculously talented offensive players the last few years
As I ponder on our offensive struggles I have no choice but to remember the incredible string of stars we've had since 2020.
Zach Wilson was among the national leaders in nearly every passing category in 2020
Tyler Allgeier was among the national leaders in most rushing categories in 2021
Puka Nacua was restricted by injuries alone from being among the national leaders in receiving categories (and still managed to finish 3rd nationally in yards per route run in 2022)
Not to mention another QB (Hall), another WR (Milne), and two lineman (Christensen, Freeland) that were NFL draft picks in that same window. What a crazy run it's been. No wonder our offense isn't as good this year.
We've had some ridiculously talented offensive players the last few years
As I ponder on our offensive struggles I have no choice but to remember the incredible string of stars we've had since 2020.
Zach Wilson was among the national leaders in nearly every passing category in 2020
Tyler Allgeier was among the national leaders in most rushing categories in 2021
Puka Nacua was restricted by injuries alone from being among the national leaders in receiving categories (and still managed to finish 3rd nationally in yards per route run in 2022)
Not to mention another QB (Hall), another WR (Milne), and two lineman (Christensen, Freeland) that were NFL draft picks in that same window. What a crazy run it's been. No wonder our offense isn't as good this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment