Yesterday I wrote a post on a hard and fast timer, the rule being that once those 35 minutes perished, I must hit submit, no matter the status of the writings. I liked it! Let's try it again today. Shoutout to https://www.timerminutes.com/35-minutes-timer since my kids just ran off with my phone. Who is responsible for birthing such miscreants?
The Oklahoma City Thunder drafted three MVPs in a row. I mean literally they did that. They drafted a MVP in 2007. They drafted a MVP in 2008. In 2009, yes, they also drafted a MVP. Is it possible to draft better than that? I don't believe it is. And how many NBA titles did this most perfectly constructed team win? Zero.
LeBron James is the greatest basketball player ever. Cleveland had him on their team for 11 years. Ten of those eleven years he failed to win a title.
The point I'm trying to make is winning championships is hard. In the NBA it's really hard. You can draft three MVPs in a row and only make the finals once. How is that possible? Because of injuries and role players and contracts and the luck of a bouncing ball and all sorts of unpredictable shenanigans which makes sports either fun or hellacious.
I'm trying to link this point to a second point, which is that winning shouldn't be taken for granted. Sports is a one minus one math problem. A team wins, a team loses. There's no guarantee you'll stay on the winning side forever. And the Jazz have won a lot with their Gobert-Mitchell core. In fact if the NBA were European soccer, the Jazz would have a championship trophy, having been the best team in 2021 over the course of an entire season. That's meaningful.
But people weren't happy with early round exits. Media, fans, the whole entire sporting energy of the earth seemed to be saying the same thing all year: if the Jazz lose in the first or second round again you have to blow up the core. Why? Because you want a chance to go deep into the playoffs? Uhmmm, that describes the team we currently have, plus a lucky draft pick or a player leveling up.
I don't get it. Why would you blow up the core? Because you want to find another star? The Jazz have two stars. That's an accomplishment! That's hard to duplicate! You know how they got those two stars? In pick 14 and 27 of the draft. That doesn't happen very often. And I guess for a few optimists the idea that the Jazz were successful on long shot draft picks in the past is evidence they could be again -- thus tear it down and start drafting anew. But I would say if you believe in the Jazz's ability to pick all-stars at slot number 27, then the last thing you should do is blow it up because a team that excels at drafting at slot number 27 should want to add great picks at slot 27 to the current team, not the barren team of the future.
Editor's note: this is not going well. I'm under 20 minutes and am not sure I've made a lick of sense. Let's throw creativity to the side -- hey just like this project is supposed to make me do! -- and state some core beliefs.
I'm mad the Jazz gave up on this team. I know they underperformed last year against the Clippers and this year against the Mavs. I get that the Nuggets came back on them in the bubble. But I think when you slice the NBA into tiers there are three classes. Class A is the true contenders -- think Warriors and Milwaukee and THAT'S IT. There's only two. Class B is everyone else who is good: Boston, Philly, Phoenix, Clipps, Mavs, Hawks, and yes the Jazz. Class C of course is the turd class, which we might speak of again if we get time.
Ready for some hard striking analysis? Teams from Class A are better than teams in Class B. But teams from class B can get hot, catch breaks, and make runs. Last year Phoenix made the finals. Last year the Hawks made the Eastern Finals. Toronto won the finals a few years ago behind the strength of some fluky injuries. The Nuggests made the West Finals in the bubble. None of those teams made their conference finals this year. But the Mavs did! It's a rotation among the Class B teams. Someone will get hot. Maybe it will be the Sixers and the Suns. Those are all good teams, but they aren't leaps and bounds above the Jazz. So here's my point here's my point here's my point, deal with it, I'm gonna say it ten more times probably.
Getting to Class A is almost impossible. It takes a magical combination of contracts working well from a timing perspective (think Golden State getting Curry cheap in the early 2010s due to injury history, or Golden State being able to sign KD because of the salary cap exploding in 2016). It takes drafting well for a three or four year period. And even then you aren't guaranteed to win.
Getting to Class B is also very hard. Not as impossible as Class A, but you need to get lucky. You basically need to do what the Jazz already did. Find a star in the teens and the 20s of a draft. Then you need to build on the edges. Get a good coach. Have your players stay healthy. Or get hot for a postseason. Then you can make a Hawks or Dallas type run to your conference finals, even if you aren't one of the top two teams in the league. And I guess that's what I'm trying to say with the Jazz. They weren't perfect but they were close. If they had made one good draft pick after Mitchell maybe it would have been enough. Maybe if they hadn't lost Ingles to injury it would have been enough. Maybe if they picked one decent wing player it would've been enough.
So instead the Jazz tear it down. They ship away a guy who gave it his absolute all, who loved Utah, for picks belonging to a team that has historically been crappy, but has a guy named after an insect who I think could be a top-5 player in the league. I do not think those Minnesota picks will be top 20. I also worry about things from a karma perspective. Historically when people have bailed on the Jazz (think Hayward, Shandon Anderson, Deron Williams) it has gone poorly for the players. But in all of those cases it has been the player dumping the Jazz, thinking they could do better elsewhere. This time the Jazz are doing the dumping, sending out a perennial all-star, likely hall of fame caliber player, who LOVED Utah, in hopes of finding something better down the road. It feels dangerous from a karma perspective.
Yes I understand that good is the enemy of great.
Yes I understand that fans are tired of losing in the second round.
But the reality is that's pretty normal. 29 out of 30 teams DON'T win the title. 15 of 16 teams will be disappointed in the playoffs. We're gonna rebuild. We're going to tank. And we're going to hope to acquire two stars, much like we had a few weeks ago. We'll make it to the playoffs and we'll be excited because it will be the first time in a few years. It will feel fresh and new. And then we'll become a great team that loses a few more playoffs because (remember?) 29 out of 30 teams end the season without winning the title and we'll get bent out of shape and maybe history will repeat itself.
You know what's scary about that?
That's the best case scenario. Not really of course -- the best case would be winning the entire title. But finding your way into the playoffs and losing is a better outcome than most rebuilding teams experience. You seen the Kings lately? What about the Magic? The Pistons? Full of young exciting players right? But hasn't that been the case for the Kings for like, 18 years? Sometimes rebuilds don't work. If you're the Jazz you're relying on the draft to save you.
I'd much rather be waiting for the draft to save me if I already have Mitchell and Gobert on my team. Because really that's all this team needed. A Herb Jones. A Jaden McDaniels (LOL). Someone picked in the 20+ range who can actually touch a basketball without making bad things happen. Anyone except for the big useless centers and backup guards they've been drafting.
I'll miss you Gobert. And I'll miss you too Mitchell, because I know the Jazz aren't going to keep you. You both made basketball fun, and at this point in my life that brought me happiness, even if it didn't include a title.
Editor's note: this is not going well. I'm under 20 minutes and am not sure I've made a lick of sense. Let's throw creativity to the side -- hey just like this project is supposed to make me do! -- and state some core beliefs.
I'm mad the Jazz gave up on this team. I know they underperformed last year against the Clippers and this year against the Mavs. I get that the Nuggets came back on them in the bubble. But I think when you slice the NBA into tiers there are three classes. Class A is the true contenders -- think Warriors and Milwaukee and THAT'S IT. There's only two. Class B is everyone else who is good: Boston, Philly, Phoenix, Clipps, Mavs, Hawks, and yes the Jazz. Class C of course is the turd class, which we might speak of again if we get time.
Ready for some hard striking analysis? Teams from Class A are better than teams in Class B. But teams from class B can get hot, catch breaks, and make runs. Last year Phoenix made the finals. Last year the Hawks made the Eastern Finals. Toronto won the finals a few years ago behind the strength of some fluky injuries. The Nuggests made the West Finals in the bubble. None of those teams made their conference finals this year. But the Mavs did! It's a rotation among the Class B teams. Someone will get hot. Maybe it will be the Sixers and the Suns. Those are all good teams, but they aren't leaps and bounds above the Jazz. So here's my point here's my point here's my point, deal with it, I'm gonna say it ten more times probably.
Getting to Class A is almost impossible. It takes a magical combination of contracts working well from a timing perspective (think Golden State getting Curry cheap in the early 2010s due to injury history, or Golden State being able to sign KD because of the salary cap exploding in 2016). It takes drafting well for a three or four year period. And even then you aren't guaranteed to win.
Getting to Class B is also very hard. Not as impossible as Class A, but you need to get lucky. You basically need to do what the Jazz already did. Find a star in the teens and the 20s of a draft. Then you need to build on the edges. Get a good coach. Have your players stay healthy. Or get hot for a postseason. Then you can make a Hawks or Dallas type run to your conference finals, even if you aren't one of the top two teams in the league. And I guess that's what I'm trying to say with the Jazz. They weren't perfect but they were close. If they had made one good draft pick after Mitchell maybe it would have been enough. Maybe if they hadn't lost Ingles to injury it would have been enough. Maybe if they picked one decent wing player it would've been enough.
So instead the Jazz tear it down. They ship away a guy who gave it his absolute all, who loved Utah, for picks belonging to a team that has historically been crappy, but has a guy named after an insect who I think could be a top-5 player in the league. I do not think those Minnesota picks will be top 20. I also worry about things from a karma perspective. Historically when people have bailed on the Jazz (think Hayward, Shandon Anderson, Deron Williams) it has gone poorly for the players. But in all of those cases it has been the player dumping the Jazz, thinking they could do better elsewhere. This time the Jazz are doing the dumping, sending out a perennial all-star, likely hall of fame caliber player, who LOVED Utah, in hopes of finding something better down the road. It feels dangerous from a karma perspective.
Yes I understand that good is the enemy of great.
Yes I understand that fans are tired of losing in the second round.
But the reality is that's pretty normal. 29 out of 30 teams DON'T win the title. 15 of 16 teams will be disappointed in the playoffs. We're gonna rebuild. We're going to tank. And we're going to hope to acquire two stars, much like we had a few weeks ago. We'll make it to the playoffs and we'll be excited because it will be the first time in a few years. It will feel fresh and new. And then we'll become a great team that loses a few more playoffs because (remember?) 29 out of 30 teams end the season without winning the title and we'll get bent out of shape and maybe history will repeat itself.
You know what's scary about that?
That's the best case scenario. Not really of course -- the best case would be winning the entire title. But finding your way into the playoffs and losing is a better outcome than most rebuilding teams experience. You seen the Kings lately? What about the Magic? The Pistons? Full of young exciting players right? But hasn't that been the case for the Kings for like, 18 years? Sometimes rebuilds don't work. If you're the Jazz you're relying on the draft to save you.
I'd much rather be waiting for the draft to save me if I already have Mitchell and Gobert on my team. Because really that's all this team needed. A Herb Jones. A Jaden McDaniels (LOL). Someone picked in the 20+ range who can actually touch a basketball without making bad things happen. Anyone except for the big useless centers and backup guards they've been drafting.
I'll miss you Gobert. And I'll miss you too Mitchell, because I know the Jazz aren't going to keep you. You both made basketball fun, and at this point in my life that brought me happiness, even if it didn't include a title.
The rebuild is coming. Brace yourself. Or myself. Whatever.
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